New Front In Ukraine: Can Belarus Enter The War

What the experts and politicians are saying.

Ukraine says it is preparing to repel an offensive from Belarus. Minefields and fortifications are being set up on the border territory, special services are intensifying checks of the population. Representatives of the Ukrainian army declare intended targets on the Belarusian territory. "Wrap" tells how real the risk of Minsk entering the war is.

How do we know about a possible attack on Ukraine from Belarus?"

Vladimir Zelensky said on May 2 that "unusual activity" has been noticed near the Ukrainian border from the side of Belarus. "Ukraine is ready to defend its people, its sovereignty, and everyone should understand this, who are trying to be drawn into any aggressive activity against Ukraine," he wrote, without explaining what he was talking about.

Ukrainian media explained that from the Belarusian side the border road infrastructure is being updated and artillery positions are being arranged. It was noted that the Ukrainian side has not yet recorded signs of preparations for an immediate offensive.

Two weeks later, on May 15, Zelensky said that Moscow was considering plans for operations from the territory of Belarus - either against the Chernihiv-Kiev direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries on the northern Belarusian border (Lithuania and Latvia are located there). "Ukraine owns the details of the conversation between Russia and Belarus," he said. - Ukraine will certainly defend itself and its people if Alexander Lukashenko makes a mistake and decides to support this Russian intention as well."

Zelensky did not talk about Belarus' direct involvement in the war; President Alexander Lukashenko denies it as well. "If we will be dragged into the war, including if it will be against Ukraine, only in one case - if they commit aggression against us. We are not going to be dragged into a war in Ukraine. There is no need for that," he told reporters on May 21.

Belarus may join the Russian invasion?

In the beginning of the war, in 2022, the Russian army attacked Ukraine and from the territory of Belarus - advancing on Kiev from two sides, through Pripyat and Chernihiv. From the Ukrainian capital to the border - about 100 kilometers, then the Russian army managed to approach the borders of the city in just one day - now it looks absolutely impossible.

Russia used military bases and airfields on the territory of Belarus, launched missile strikes from the territory of the country, and placed the wounded in local military hospitals, but the Belarusian military did not directly participate in the fighting.

The country's army consists of about 49 thousand people, during the war it can be replenished by 150-300 thousand reservists. About 6.5 thousand soldiers and sergeants are contract soldiers, some officers are regularly called up from the reserve, and the armed forces are mainly equipped with modernized Soviet models of equipment. Conducting offensive actions against Ukraine with such forces will most likely not be possible.

About 27% of the country's population supports the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine, an October iSANS poll claimed, while 34% oppose them. Nearly 70% support peace talks. With such sentiments, a conscripted army is unlikely to be ready for war on foreign territory, and most experts believe Minsk will not engage in hostilities on its own. "Part of Lukashenko's unspoken pact with society was a promise not to drag the country into another country's destructive war," notes The National Interest.

A more realistic option seems to be that Belarus could once again make territory available for an offensive by the Russian military. But there is no independent confirmation of preparations for such an offensive yet. The American Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia probably does not have sufficient reserves to launch such an operation.

There are also no signs of creating a sufficient strike group on the border. Analysts at the institute believe Moscow may try to persuade Lukashenko to use Belarusian territory for drone attacks in western and northwestern Ukraine, including the railroad from Poland. Such strikes have not yet been recorded.

What could a new Russian offensive from Belarus look like?"

If Moscow did gather forces for an offensive, the Belarusian direction could be used to divert Ukrainian forces from the east of the country, where Russia is trying to complete its takeover of the Donetsk region. Moscow could conduct diversionary strikes toward Kiev or cut logistical supply routes from Poland.

Such a strike could create serious logistical problems for the AFU and require the transfer of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, notes Luke Kofi, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute (he discusses the possibility of the Belarusian army performing such a maneuver in his article).

A hypothetical offensive toward Kiev or Chernihiv in 2026 would look different from 2022: drones have made it impossible for large equipment to advance, border lines are covered by minefields and fortifications, and the Ukrainian military says it is ready to strike deep into Belarusian territory.

"The first 500 targets have already been identified. Free and quite practical advice: don't become Ukraine's throat," Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Force, wrote on Facebook on May 26.

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