The Kremlin's Fourth Consecutive Defeat

The slogan “Supporting Russia means you’re a loser” could become a catch-all phrase.

55% for Pashinyan's party — that's a landslide. However, pro-Russian parties are garnering 35–36%. Therefore, Russia will try to continue playing an active role.

This is the fourth consecutive defeat for the Russian propaganda machine (preceded by Romania, Moldova, and Hungary). And this is the third defeat for the team of Sergei Kirienko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, in foreign elections. Given this result, Kirienko’s position is bound to weaken. Overall, his standing will largely depend on how successfully he manages the fall Duma election campaign and stops loyalists from defecting to the opposition. Nevertheless, there are far too many who are dissatisfied with Kirienko’s actions, and the behind-the-scenes battles against him are only just beginning.

If we look at the bigger picture, these defeats show that being pro-Russian in politics is becoming a losing proposition. We are seeing Fico’s shift following Orbán’s defeat. But this is only the beginning. Many pro-Russian politicians are beginning to fear that the equation “pro-Russia equals loser” could become universal.

Pashinyan’s victory does not yet mean a complete break with Moscow, as it may seem to many. It seems Pashinyan will try to negotiate again, especially given the cheap gas. It’s worth noting here: no one is pressuring him to break ties with Russia. And so, if the Russians aren’t complete idiots, they’ll be able to maintain the current status quo. If not, a very complex process of pushing Russia out not only of Armenia but of the Caucasus as a whole will begin.

Vadim Denisenko, Facebook

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