"Chain Reaction": Political Analyst Describes A Scenario That Could Be Dangerous For Putin

The process is already underway.

What risks does a possible mobilization in Russia pose for Putin? The website Charter97.org posed to the well-known Ukrainian political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies Vladimir Fesenko:

— It depends on how the population reacts. But this is a continuation of the decline in Putin’s trust and popularity. The process is already underway. Perhaps it isn’t very noticeable and doesn’t have immediate consequences, but it’s already happening and could intensify. However, other factors are more significant. When Russia carried out a mass mobilization in October 1922, it caused panic. About a million people fled Russia.

Something similar could happen now. If the scale and nature of the mobilization in certain regions are sufficiently drastic and extensive, it could trigger a sharp rise in social tension. Conflict situations could arise in these regions. This is dangerous in and of itself. From a purely economic standpoint, mobilization—even if carried out in phases of 300,000 people at a time—will create quite serious problems in the labor market. Plus, there will be panic—people will start fleeing, seeking refuge abroad or in other regions to save themselves. This could lead to a chaotic and crisis-ridden situation in the labor market in those regions where mass mobilization takes place. This could also affect the economic situation in Russia.

Overall, there will be a rise in discontent and conflict. The main danger is if this leads to conflict situations where there could be outbreaks of violence or resistance. Whether this will happen or not, no one can say at this point.

For now, this is not the most likely scenario. But the risk lies in the fact that protest-driven discontent may be building up. For now, this is passive discontent linked to the internet, the situation on the fuel market, and the numerous problems arising from this war. If mobilization is added to the mix, there could be risks of a chain reaction that could undermine the so-called social contract between Putin and the majority of Russian society.

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