The Kremlin Was Alarmed By The Forecast From VEB's Chief Economist
1- 16.08.2026, 20:49
- 4,152
They decided to fire him.
Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank (VEB.RF) , was fired following quotes from his speech at a session of the Nikitsky Club regarding the risk of Russia’s defeat began circulating in the media. As reported by The Bell, an acquaintance of the economist, VEB head Igor Shuvalov fired Klepach after 12 years of service “on orders from above.” A second source confirmed that the reason was public statements about Russia’s lag, noting that the country would be unable to win a “war of attrition” because Ukraine is supported by the West.
Klepač, in particular, stated that the costs to the domestic economy from sanctions and the Western blockade are rising, the damage from Ukrainian strikes on ports, infrastructure, and chemical and oil plants is increasing, and at the same time, Russia is failing to keep pace with technological progress. “We’re falling behind. We’re losing both the technological and economic competition on the global stage. Moreover, as I’ve already said, we’re not only losing to China and the U.S.—in some respects, we’re losing to Ukraine as well… We have this illusion that everything over there will collapse. It hasn’t collapsed and it won’t. Our costs are mounting,” Klepach emphasized. He also warned of the threat of a social crisis in Russia, “and at a time when no one is particularly expecting it,” and compared the situation to that on the eve of the February Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
VEB is a key Russian state-owned bank that finances the Kremlin’s national projects and holds the status of a “state development corporation.” Before joining the organization, Klepach spent 10 years at the Ministry of Economic Development, where he began his career as director of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting. From 2008 to 2014, he served as deputy minister—during that time, the ministry saw three different heads: Elvira Nabiullina, Andrei Belousov, and Alexei Ulyukaev.
“The dismissal of Klepach—one of Russia’s best macroeconomists—is unlikely to delay the looming crisis he has been warning about. Only propagandists on the government payroll—not respected economists—could fail to see the problems in economic growth rates barely above zero, a two-speed industrial sector, and a decline in investment amid rising unproductive defense spending,” — commented Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center .
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