The Caspian Sea Is No Longer Putin's Quiet Rear

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting operations there with increasing frequency.

Ukrainian strikes on merchant ships in the Caspian Sea have expanded the scope of the Russian-Ukrainian war and presented Iran with a difficult choice. According to Iranian authorities, an Iranian sailor was killed and three others were injured as a result of the attack on ships sailing between Russian and Iranian ports, reports CEPA (translation by Charter97.org).

Tehran summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires and called the incident a “hostile and criminal act.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy subsequently confirmed the Ukrainian strikes, stating that the ships were carrying military cargo linked to Iran. One of them was en route from Astrakhan to the Iranian port of Anzali.

For Kyiv, the Caspian Sea is becoming part of a strategy to disrupt the supply chains linking Russia and Iran. Instead of intercepting weapons after they have already been delivered, Ukraine is attempting to strike supply routes before the equipment even reaches the Russian military system.

For Tehran, the situation is significantly more complicated. Iran continues to assert that it is not directly involved in the war, but the attack underscores the role of the Caspian Sea in shipments that support the Russian military-industrial complex. It was via this route that the first Iranian “Shahed” drones were delivered to Russia in 2022.

Iran has not yet responded openly to Ukraine. “The reason may lie not so much in diplomatic contacts as in Tehran’s military capabilities,” the authors write. A ballistic missile strike against Ukraine would be costly and yield limited results.

A more likely response could include cyberattacks, the transfer of missile components, drone technology, and electronic warfare capabilities to Russia.

Meanwhile, the Caspian Sea is transforming from a relatively closed strategic space into a new arena of confrontation. Ukraine is increasingly striking infrastructure that supports the Russian military campaign far beyond the immediate front lines.

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