"Lukashenko Already Has These Projects On His To-do List"
2- 19.08.2026, 10:22
- 2,602
Ukraine issued a warning to the Belarusian dictator.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that if Russia carries out a mobilization this year, it could very well launch a new offensive on the northern front—toward the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions—as early as this winter.
Will there be a mobilization in Russia, and is an offensive from Belarus possible in that case? The website Charter97.org discussed this with Ukrainian military and political analyst Alexander Kovalenko of the “Information Resistance” group Alexander Kovalenko:
— There will be a mobilization in Russia in any case, but here we should consider three main scenarios for how it might unfold and what its objectives might be. The first scenario is mobilization to hold onto the territories that Russia has currently seized and to continue a creeping offensive in the Donetsk region. This would allow Russia to continue the war not only until the end of 2026, but also at least until the end of the first half of 2027.
The second scenario involves opening a second front on Ukrainian territory. But I don’t think Belarusian territory will be used specifically for this purpose. First, it is impossible to covertly prepare such a large number of forces and resources that would be effective for an offensive operation against Ukraine from Belarusian territory. All of this will be noticeable, without a doubt. Second, Ukraine will not view these events with the same tolerance and restraint as it did in 2022, but will strike back—destroying Belarusian infrastructure.
As Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said in one of his statements: We already have 500 targets on our list. That is, at least 500 facilities. I don’t think Belarus’s air defense will be able to cope with what Ukraine is currently doing in Russia.
We could set aside, for example, 3–4 days, maybe a week, and with such an influx of weapons, all of Belarus’s infrastructure would be destroyed. And this is very important for both Lukashenko and Putin, since Belarus has long since become, for Russia, a country of military-industrial enterprises where repairs, recommissioning, and and modernizing Russian equipment—whether it is being taken out of storage or transported to combat zones for repair.
Belarus has become a supplier to Russia of gasoline and a range of other products. On top of everything else, Belarus has become a hub for legalizing dual-use products from other countries that were originally intended for smuggling—for example, Chinese chemical products used to manufacture explosives for Russian missiles and ammunition, or machine tools and microchips, which are integrated into Belarusian products and shipped to Russia under Belarusian brand names. Lukashenko and Putin are taking advantage of this.
If all of this were to be dismantled, not only would the dictator Lukashenko himself lose his business, but so would Putin. Therefore, I have my doubts as to whether Putin would be willing to take that risk. On top of everything else, there are serious doubts as to whether it is even possible right now to conduct a successful full-scale offensive operation against Ukraine from Belarusian territory.
Therefore, if something like this were to take place, it would most likely originate from the Bryansk region, or Russia would consider opening another theater of operations against one of the European countries. The risks are very high for the Baltic states, especially Estonia.
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