"Regime Change In Belarus Is A Matter Of A Week"

20.08.2026, 10:18
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All it takes is a political decision.

Could the weakening of Russia and Putin open a window of opportunity for Belarus? The website Charter97.org posed to the well-known American historian and journalist Yuri Felshtinsky:

— You know, I think this will definitely happen. And it will happen relatively quickly. Let’s put it this way: while I would consider the prospects for regime change in Russia a very, very long-term issue, that is certainly not the case with regard to Belarus.

But right now, this can undoubtedly only happen in connection with the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It probably won’t happen any other way, because, unfortunately, the Belarusian opposition has very little chance of overthrowing Lukashenko’s regime on its own. Let’s be frank: to oppose military juntas and dictatorships, you have to take up arms. We shouldn’t be naive enough to think that people like Lukashenko will lose their nerve and hand over power of their own accord. No, they will not relinquish power on their own.

At the same time, we must understand that Belarus is a classic dictatorship. This is in contrast to the situation in Russia, where a state security apparatus holds power. That is a very important, large, numerous, and ramified structure; in Belarus, it is a very simple tyranny.

From the perspective of Ukraine’s military capabilities, regime change in Belarus is a one-week operation. It’s simply a matter of a political decision by Ukraine and its European allies. As soon as that decision is made, the regime change in Belarus itself would be a one-week operation, at most.

Will this happen? I think it will happen. Either, as we’ve already discussed, if Ukraine realizes that Russian troops are beginning to concentrate on Belarusian territory, or if Ukraine realizes that tactical nuclear weapons are being transferred to Belarus. And it’s quite difficult to do all of this in secret—both the first and the second. That’s why everything will become clear. And in 2022, it was already clear that Russia was concentrating troops in Belarus. As early as the end of 2021, it was clear that this posed a potential threat. At the time, we all hoped: maybe it’s a bluff, maybe it’s a political campaign rather than a military operation, and it will blow over. It didn’t blow over. This time, everyone already knows it won’t blow over. So this time, as soon as signs of an actual arms transfer to Belarus are detected, I think Ukraine will be forced to launch a preemptive strike.

There’s no doubt that Russia continues to view Belarus as its most important springboard in Europe. Whether Russia will risk using this springboard again—we’ll see. But if it does, that will be the moment when Lukashenko’s reign comes to an end. No one will help him in that case—not Putin, not Trump, and not China.

Changes in Belarus will come fairly soon. We will all witness these changes; it will all happen right before our eyes. And then Belarus will have to join the European Union; after Trump leaves office, it will have to join NATO and thus return to Europe.

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Renowned American historian and journalist Yuri Felshtinsky is the author of the book *Natallia Radzina’s Belarus: A Journalist Against a Dictator*. “Natallia Radzina’s Belarus” is the story of modern Belarus as told through the life of one person. At the center of the book is Belarusian journalist Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of the country’s most famous opposition website, “Charta ’97.”

The book "Natallia Radzina’s Belarus" is available for purchase at:

Belarusian edition — the "Andrei Yanushkevich Publishing" platform “Knihauka”, the “Knihauka” bookstore at ul. Kłopotowskiego 4, 03-717.

The Russian edition is available on the publisher’s website “ISIA Media”, Amazon and Babook

Ukrainian edition — “Oleh Fedorov's Printing Yard” and Yakaboo.

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