"There Are Seven Locations In Russia Where An Attack Could Trigger A Large-scale Blackout."

An expert explained what kinds of attacks could bring down Russia’s power grid.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck yet another Wildberries warehouse near Moscow, effectively completing the destruction of the marketplace’s logistics network. Virtually all of its largest warehouses have already been destroyed or put out of commission.

Given these latest strikes, can we already speak of Wildberries’ de facto collapse and the company’s impending bankruptcy? The website Charter97.org discussed this with Ukrainian political strategist and managing partner of the “National Anti-Crisis Group,” Taras Zagorodniy:

— Wildberries will definitely change and will no longer be what it used to be. It has lost its competitive edge. I think the company is effectively being liquidated already; they just aren’t talking about it yet. Its competitive advantage lay precisely in those huge warehouses, which provided economies of scale and allowed it to create an entire ecosystem. I think this company is already finished. It has lost its competitive advantage—for example, compared to Ozon—and is turning into an ordinary company with much higher operating costs.

It’s important to understand that Wildberries never actually managed to reach breakeven. If you look at Amazon’s history, that company was unprofitable in the U.S. for a long time. It took them nearly 10–15 years to become what they are today. Wildberries followed a similar path. Through administrative channels, it was granted very large loans, given various advantages, allocated land so the company could expand, and so on. But it never reached the level of profitability that would have offset those losses. In essence, I think the company is already gone. The signs are still there, and it continues to exist, but of course, no one is going to pay the people they owe. The losses are enormous. They fall primarily on VTB Bank, which was practically the owner of this company. Now figures are already emerging indicating that the company’s own losses amount to about 300 billion rubles, while the losses of the people who sold their goods there are estimated at approximately 500 billion.

It’s important to understand that these people—the sellers who traded there—also took out loans somewhere. Most likely, many of them took out loans from VTB itself. So look at the bigger picture: ultimately, this could amount to nearly one trillion rubles in non-performing loans for VTB. Wildberries alone owes VTB about 500 billion rubles, and the company’s total debt amounts to about one and a half trillion. This means there are loans at other banks as well.

— How has the collapse of Wildberries’ logistics already impacted the Russian economy? How serious could the further consequences be?

— There will be colossal losses in the banking system. Just consider: one and a half trillion in loans directly to Wildberries. Plus another 500–600 billion in loans to people who worked through this platform. You can imagine what the effect will be. That’s already about two trillion in non-performing loans against the backdrop of a growing liquidity shortage in the banking system.

I’ve seen various estimates of how many people were selling there. By my estimates, we’re talking about roughly 500,000 to 600,000 entrepreneurs. If each of them employed at least one person, that alone would affect about a million people. Moreover, these are fairly active people who earned their own living and didn’t ask the government for money.

That’s not counting taxes, bankruptcies, and many other factors. In other words, all of this needs to be considered as a whole.

Furthermore, it’s important to understand that Wildberries was effectively used as a state-run entity for parallel gray-market imports from China and other countries, as well as for the rapid distribution of various goods, including those for military use. It also sold drone parts, military equipment, and many other items.
In other words, taken together, this is a significant blow to the Russian economy—not only to Wildberries itself but also to the entire logistics network associated with it.

Of course, this is unpleasant for them, but such losses can be partially offset. For example, the company could switch to a system of decentralized warehouses and continue to operate for some time. But Wildberries will never be the same as it was before.

— Which sectors of the Russian economy could be the next targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

— For Ukraine, the top priority remains the destruction of Russia’s oil refineries, primarily in the European part of the country and, to a lesser extent, in the Asian part. Because if oil refining stops, the entire economy begins to grind to a halt.
Look, estimates now suggest that they have about 30% of their gasoline production capacity and about 30% of their diesel production capacity remaining. And what is diesel? Diesel is practically everything. It powers locomotives, transportation, military logistics, and much more. If this fuel isn’t available, the country simply begins to grind to a halt. And, in essence, its disintegration begins.

Well, how are you going to supply Yakutia or the Far East with fuel, for example? How can you cover such vast distances? That’s why I think the main strikes right now will be aimed at oil refineries. At the same time, key routes through the Black Sea are being blocked. If, for example, Russian grain exports were halted for a month, Russia wouldn’t receive any additional foreign exchange revenue. There are also problems with oil exports. For some strange reason, tankers aren’t calling at Novorossiysk. Probably because they’re being intercepted in the Black Sea.

Russia is also trying to pull a fast one with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. There was an agreement with the Americans: here’s your chartered vessel; it picks up oil from Kazakhstan and sails “in the open,” with its transponder turned on. Everything is clear.

But then some shady ships flying the Liberian flag started showing up there and also picking up CPC oil. One of them was also intercepted somewhere in the Black Sea. Because when an unidentified vessel appears, the question arises: is this Kazakhstani oil or Russian oil? The Russians are trying to export their oil this way.
In essence, it’s difficult to determine the origin of the oil. The only clear way to identify it is when there’s a specific chartered vessel—say, a Chevron ship—with its transponder activated, sailing to pick up its oil, which is being pumped from Kazakhstan. Then everything is clear. And the Russians, as always, are trying to pull a fast one in this regard. Overall, Ukraine is blocking very important arteries that sustain the Russian economy. But the main target, of course, is oil refining. And later, closer to fall, I think strikes on energy and gas infrastructure may begin, because Ukraine has left it virtually untouched so far. And gas, among other things, is used to power power plants.

As far as I know from the analysis of our energy experts, there are seven locations in Russia whose destruction could lead to a large-scale blackout in the southern part of the country. I think Ukraine is working on this. Now, if you saw the raid on Novorossiysk, take note of how it was organized. Various units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and special services were operating there simultaneously. This is because different agencies have their own objectives and their own tools: some use drones, others use missiles. For example, the “Neptune” is generally under the command of the Navy, because it was originally designed as an anti-ship missile. It has now been adapted to strike ground targets as well.

And all of this works together. That’s why I think the energy infrastructure could be the next important target. The goal is to cause a blackout in Russia.

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