"And There's A Very Real Chance That Some Kind Of Accident Will Occur At Belarusian Oil Refineries"
- 22.08.2026, 11:51
- 1,160
And new Ukrainian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles are on the way.
It’s strange that there are people in Russia who don’t understand that the situation with both gasoline and diesel in the country can only get worse. And it will definitely get worse. Because the government has already pulled all the tricks it had up its sleeve and laid them on the table. But these cards are one-time use and there are no others, writes Russian columnist Dmitry Chernyshev.
Russia had a strategic fuel reserve for a rainy day. That reserve is being depleted right now, and there is no other reserve, nor is there anything to replenish it with.
Russia has banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel. This can only be done once.
Russia has reduced the quality of gasoline to the absolute minimum. It can’t be lowered any further.
Russia has maximized gasoline imports from Belarus. Belarus physically cannot produce any more than that. And there’s a very real chance that some kind of accident will occur at local refineries. Suddenly.
Russia has canceled scheduled maintenance at those of its refineries that are still operating. And such things don’t go unnoticed either. There will be man-made accidents even without drones.
Russia tried to buy gasoline abroad. But it turned out to be so expensive that they haven’t even started unloading the tanker yet—no one wants to sell at a loss.
That’s it. As one politician put it: “Vladimir, you have no trump cards.” And Ukrainian drones will be flying in more and more often.
Now, let’s talk about where all this will lead in the very near future. Because the lines are just the tip of the iceberg. Now for the real problem.
Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, almost the entire agricultural sector in Russia has already become unprofitable. And the harvest is still ahead. This means that this winter, farmers will face mass bankruptcies, the slaughter of livestock, and the sale off of equipment, while in the spring there will be a sharp reduction in planted acreage. It’s not even certain that they’ll be able to harvest this crop—why work at a loss?
The ban on fuel exports is a severe blow to oil companies; it becomes more profitable for them to cut back on refining than to operate at a loss in the regulated domestic market. There’s no foreign currency, and tax revenues are plummeting.
Peaks in demand are still ahead: the harvest season, people returning from vacations, the start of the school year, and then the switch to winter diesel fuel. Fights break out in gas lines, scalpers sell jerry cans at triple the price, and school buses in regional centers run out of diesel—as a result, only the wealthy will be able to get around in their personal cars. And the poor haven’t even fixed their engines yet because of the lousy gasoline. The problem of traffic jams in Moscow will resolve itself.
A sharp rise in regional separatism. Governors, who are personally responsible for “stability,” are starting to hoard fuel in their regions: imposing informal bans on fuel exports rather than sending gasoline to Moscow. Let me remind you that many governors already have their own armies.
Smart oil executives are in no hurry to repair their refineries. Why invest millions in extremely costly repairs if drones will fly in again tomorrow and destroy everything? No one knows what will happen with winter fuel deliveries. People from the north may have to be evacuated on an emergency basis. No one knows what the planes will fly on. There’s already a shortage of jet fuel. No one knows how to supply the army amid a diesel shortage. How will trash be hauled out of the cities? How will food be delivered to stores? And by how much will food prices rise? And what will happen in Crimea without fuel and electricity?
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