India Is Being Taken Away From Moscow
- 29.08.2026, 10:52
Venezuelan oil will replace Russian oil at Indian refineries.
The Americans are taking India away from Moscow; their strategic plan is designed to span decades and threatens the complete collapse of Russia’s oil industry due to a lack of export markets and the destruction of oil refineries. China, which has set a course to eliminate oil imports, is also dropping out of the “rescuers” group.
Following Ukrainian attacks, Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk to India plummeted by a factor of 4.4, while freight rates rose by 50%. Russian oil shipments from Novorossiysk to India from August 1 to 21 fell to 516,000 metric tons. Exports to China fell by a factor of three, to 94,000 metric tons, while there were no shipments at all to Turkey and Egypt, where oil had been delivered in July. Due to the risk of new attacks, shipowners are refusing to enter the Black Sea, while the remaining carriers are raising their rates. Since mid-July, the cost of shipping oil from western Russian ports to India has risen by approximately 50%. The cost of chartering a tanker capable of transporting 140,000 metric tons of oil from Novorossiysk has risen from $10 million to $15 million. The increase in shipping costs is costing Russian exporters at least $5 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is negotiating with Venezuela’s interim government to secure a stake in the country’s oil fields, two U.S. officials told Axios. The talks involve more than a dozen active fields with total proven reserves of about 90 billion barrels. The potential deal would allow the U.S. to more than double its own oil reserves using resources from Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. “To call this deal huge would be an understatement. It’s gigantic,” said one U.S. official. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has already discussed the possibility of a trip to Venezuela next week in connection with his department’s plans to increase oil production by U.S. companies.
Against this backdrop, Washington is urging India to replace its imports from Russia with supplies from Venezuela. Experts note that phasing out Russian crude will be seamless, as India’s refineries are equipped to process medium and heavy crude grades (which is precisely what Venezuela produces). At the same time, the U.S. already dominates the natural gas sector: in July, more than 70% of liquefied natural gas imports and nearly a third of LNG shipments to India came from American companies.
Last August, Washington imposed a 25% tariff on imports from India as a penalty for purchasing Russian oil; however, these measures were lifted this year due to the situation in the Persian Gulf. But in September, the U.S. House of Representatives will consider a new sanctions bill (named after Senator Graham) that would impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing energy resources from Russia. That is when the “divorce” process between India and Russia in the energy sector will begin.
Vyacheslav Shiryaev, Telegram
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