Oleg Dunda: The Kremlin Is Preparing Belarus For A Dangerous Scenario
- 26.08.2026, 15:51
- 2,804
A Ukrainian lawmaker named two tasks that Moscow has assigned to the Lukashenko regime.
During and immediately after the unexpected visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow the Lukashenko regime sharply escalated its military activity. The dictator announced surprise inspections of troops and the redeployment of units, while in the Gomel region construction continues on a railroad leading to a new military training ground near the border with Ukraine.
Is Lukashenko’s current military activity linked to the CIA director’s visit to Moscow? What is the Kremlin seeking to achieve through the Belarusian dictator?
The website Charter97.org posed these questions to Oleg Dunde, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the “Servant of the People” party Oleg Dunda:
— Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow is very reminiscent of a similar visit by then-CIA Director William Burns in late 2021. Just as fleeting and just as secret.
The fact that this visit took place after unusual activity by NATO forces around Kaliningrad a few days ago indicates that NATO has finally recognized the threat posed by Belarus—and, first and foremost, Russia—to the Baltic region.
Note that Ratcliffe flew in from Riga and returned to Riga. This route and choice of transportation—a military aircraft—are entirely logical, because there are certain specific aspects to Ratcliffe’s travel patterns. He uses transportation that must have no connection to the destination country. Most likely, a military aircraft was used to avoid having to go through the rather complicated procedures for inspecting this transportation upon arrival at the destination country and upon returning. This is standard procedure.
By all accounts, the negotiations were unsuccessful, just as they were in 2021 during Burns’s visit.
Why Belarus? Because Belarus serves as the main staging ground for Russian aggression toward NATO’s eastern flank—namely, Lithuania, Latvia, and, above all, the Suwalki Corridor. It is therefore entirely logical that activity is intensifying precisely there.
As for Ukraine, I don’t see any immediate threat there. After all, Ukrainian territory in that direction is heavily mined and difficult to cross. We’ve been prepared for this for a long time, and it’s unlikely that Belarus will be used to pose a military threat to Ukraine.
Belarus could serve two purposes here. The first is as a launching pad for aggression toward the Baltic states. The second has a purely tactical purpose: containing Ukraine along Belarus’s southern borders.
Any operation in the Baltic region poses a threat to Russia and Belarus, because Ukraine could launch a parallel operation and strike at the rear in southern Belarus. To protect themselves, the Belarusians are most likely creating these strongholds and staging areas to contain Ukraine.
— Lukashenko is heading to Russia for a meeting with Vladimir Putin. What might they discuss given the current situation?
— Again, dictators are meeting to coordinate their actions ahead of the fall.
— How can Ukraine respond to the provocative actions of Lukashenko’s regime and the continued buildup of military infrastructure along its border?
— This isn’t a direct threat to Ukraine. It is primarily a threat to the Baltic region. Indirectly, any threat to the Baltics affects Ukraine as well, but in this case, we’re talking about
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