Stubb: Ukraine Is In Its Strongest And Most Favorable Position Since The War Began

Kyiv really is capable of winning.

Ukraine is currently in its strongest position since the start of the full-scale war with Russia—and is capable of securing victory. At the same time, Russia is unlikely to be able to “handle” an aggression against NATO in addition to its aggression against Ukraine.

This was stated by Finnish President Alexander Stubb in an interview with the German publication Bild. The politician believes that neither massive losses nor an economic downturn are capable of forcing Russia to end the war; a real threat to the Kremlin regime is another matter.

Stubb believes that Ukraine is now stronger than ever before

The President of Finland stated that Ukraine is now “in a stronger and better position than ever before in the course of this war.”

“Today, Ukraine is in a stronger and better position than ever before in the course of this war—militarily, politically, and financially.”

The politician believes that “Ukraine has the upper hand, and it will win this war.” After all, “if it survives, if it preserves its independence, if it remains a sovereign state—that is victory.”

Stubb is convinced that by supporting Ukraine, Europe is not engaging in charity; it is investing in its own security.

“We, both in Germany and in Finland, must realize that Ukraine is the best guarantee of our security vis-à-vis Russia. If Ukraine loses, we lose too.”

At the same time, the Finnish president does not believe that Russia could launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine. In particular, because China opposes such a move. At least, that is what Stubb was assured by the Chinese Foreign Minister during a meeting this summer.


“I raised this issue. And he said, ‘We will never let that happen.’ And I believe that this is a fairly effective deterrent,” Stubb told reporters.

The President of Finland does not believe in Russian aggression against NATO

Stubb was asked what he thought about the German intelligence warning that by 2029, Russia would be capable of attacking NATO territory. As it turned out, the politician is skeptical.

“If someone had such a crystal ball—that would be wonderful. But I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support that,” the Finnish president stated.

Stubb emphasized that he does not believe Russia “will ever want to attack the world’s most powerful military alliance, NATO.”

“I’m not saying, ‘Relax.’ You must always prepare for the worst in order to prevent it,” he added.

According to Stubb, there are no objective signs yet that Russia is preparing to attack NATO countries.

“First, I have intelligence data. And second, we have a deterrent—and this deterrent is more powerful than that of any other military power in the world. It is based on conventional armed forces, missiles, and nuclear weapons. No country in the world has any reason to test the resolve of this alliance,” the Finnish president emphasized.

Stubb is convinced that the goal of Russia’s “information war” is to spread fear in Europe.

“Russia wants us Europeans to sit here and debate: Will Russia escalate the situation? Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Will Russia attack NATO and Europe?” he said.

The Finnish president sees only one form of escalation that Russia might resort to.

“At present, Russia’s options for escalation are quite limited. The only way Russia could further escalate the situation is through mobilization. And mobilization, in my opinion, would have domestic political consequences in Russia,” the politician noted, adding that the Kremlin could begin mobilization as early as this fall.

Indirect factors point to this.

“If you look at the laws they’re passing now—which essentially involve closing borders and restricting freedom of movement—that’s an indication of this. After all, the truth is that at this rate, they won’t be able to sustain their military efforts for very long,” says Stubb.

He backed up his words with figures. If Russia is recruiting about 27,000 new recruits each month, its battlefield losses range from 30,000 to 35,000 servicemembers.

“Thus, they have fewer and fewer soldiers left in an increasingly difficult situation... I simply don’t see how they could suddenly mobilize forces for two fronts right now,” Stubb shared his thoughts.

He also mentioned economic problems, which, however, have not yet forced the Russian dictator to seriously consider ending the war.

“I don’t believe Russia will end this war because of an economic downturn. One should never underestimate how much economic hardship Russians are capable of withstanding. Neither inflation, nor a banking crisis, nor interest rates will bring the war to an end—just as heavy losses among Russian soldiers won’t,” the Finnish president emphasized.

At the same time, he believes that “the last straw that could break the camel’s back will be the feeling that the current regime is under threat” and that “the Kremlin is already in a difficult position.”

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