For The First Time Since The War Began, Half Of Russians No Longer Consider The Invasion Of Ukraine To Be “successful”
3- 7.08.2026, 15:52
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Survey.
Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign, the fuel crisis, the Wildberries warehouse fires, and mounting rumors of an upcoming mobilization this fall have eroded support for the war among the Russian public.
For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine began, half of Russian citizens do not consider Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” to be “successful,” according to a Levada Center poll.
In July 2026, only 8% of respondents described Putin’s “special military operation” as “very successful”—the lowest figure in more than four years of surveys. The same percentage (8%) called it “extremely unsuccessful,” 20% called it “somewhat unsuccessful,” and 22% “found it difficult to answer.” The latter group has never been this large in the history of the polls, reports The Moscow Times.
At the same time, the share of respondents who were not afraid to tell pollsters that they “tend not to support” or “definitely do not support” the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine reached 21%, which also set a record since the start of the war. The share of those who “definitely” support the war has dropped to 34%, although it exceeded half during the first month of the invasion and never fell below 40% last year.
A series of Ukrainian strikes, which first targeted oil refineries and then the logistics hubs of Russia’s main marketplace, brought the war into the civilian economy, forcing the authorities to confront questions for which they were unprepared, notes Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, Tatyana Stanovaya.
The main electoral motive that prompted people a quarter-century ago to vote en masse for Putin was the desire for security and a peaceful life—free from explosions and murders, without homes collapsing, and cities burning,” notes political scientist Abbas Galliamov.
But from promises of security, Putin has moved toward its complete destruction, Galliamov states: “In today’s Russia, no one can feel safe anymore—not a general who went to a restaurant to celebrate his anniversary; not a vacationer who finally made it to the beach in Gelendzhik; nor a resident of the Moscow region peacefully sleeping in their bed during a nighttime drone attack; nor a Wildberries warehouse worker.”
This is fostering a growing sense of uncertainty and anxiety in the public consciousness. “The country is becoming less and less confident that its soldiers can win, and that Putin has a realistic plan,” write experts at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia.
The Kremlin is losing public support, Putin’s approval ratings are falling, and people are becoming “poorer and angrier,” though the Kremlin remains largely shielded from public discontent, they emphasize: “The regime has sophisticated tools at its disposal, including laws on blanket censorship, AI-based surveillance, and law enforcement agencies capable of suppressing any signs of aggression.”
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