NYT: Ukraine Enters A New Phase Of Confrontation With Russia

A war of economic attrition has begun.

From an economic standpoint, Ukraine is entering the most difficult phase of this full-scale conflict. Attacks by the Russian Federation are increasingly targeting key infrastructure facilities, aimed at undermining domestic production, destabilizing logistics routes, and inflicting significant damage on the business sector.

This is reported by The New York Times.

The Economic Dimension of the War: Why the Enemy Changed Its Shelling Tactics

According to media reports, the grueling standoff between the two countries is increasingly shifting to the economic front. Both Kyiv and Moscow are targeting the industrial sector, transportation and logistics hubs, and commercial infrastructure in an effort to undermine the enemy’s economic potential.

The Ukrainian government characterizes this new wave of enemy attacks as “total war,” since the targets now include not only purely military facilities but also civilian production, supply routes, and the labor market.

The list of enemy targets has expanded significantly: warehouse complexes, port and rail networks, border crossings, and seagoing vessels have all come under attack. In addition, internet infrastructure has been targeted, leading to temporary service disruptions for approximately 100,000 subscribers.
Systematic air raid alerts remain a serious challenge for Ukrainian businesses. The need to remain in shelters brings business operations to a halt and reduces citizens’ purchasing power, which significantly lowers overall economic activity and sales.

Forecasts from the EBRD and the Ministry of Economy: a decline in GDP and $10 billion in losses

Given the intensification of shelling, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development revised its forecasts for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 on September 24, lowering the figure from 2.2% to 1.5%.

At the same time, a number of analysts believe that the domestic economy could face complete stagnation by the end of the year.

According to EBRD Chief Economist Dimitar Bogov, labor shortages and the intensification of attacks mark the onset of “the most difficult phase of the war.” He emphasized that although citizens’ purchasing power remains relatively high, they are unable to freely dispose of these funds due to constant threats and market destabilization.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Economy estimates the potential losses from this wave of attacks through the end of the year at approximately $10 billion. The lion’s share of this amount stems not so much from the physical destruction of property as from lost profits, forced downtime, and disruptions to transportation routes.

Logistical Challenges and the Rail Transport Crisis

The country’s rail sector is also suffering significant damage. While the fleet consisted of approximately 1,800 locomotives before the start of the full-scale invasion, about 500 of them have already been lost. According to estimates, the current rate of losses is approximately one locomotive per day.

Enemy strikes on port facilities, railways, border infrastructure, and ships are significantly hampering export operations. In particular, grain silos were targeted in the summer in an effort to deprive Ukraine of its ability to store the harvest. In response, the European Union is providing Ukrainian farmers with mobile grain storage facilities.

Ukrainian Businesses Adapt

The escalation of shelling is forcing Ukrainian entrepreneurs to adapt once again: companies are dispersing their warehouses, moving them underground, establishing new logistics routes, and minimizing the use of large facilities that could potentially attract the enemy’s attention.

At the same time, Ukraine is striking back at Russia’s economic potential, primarily targeting its oil industry. Ukrainian drones are systematically attacking Russian oil refineries and other commercially vital facilities.

Thus, the conflict is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a war of economic attrition, in which both sides seek not only success on the front lines but also to undermine the enemy’s economic resources as much as possible.

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