Natallia Radzina: Ukrainian authorities should not lobby Lukashenka's interests in IMF

Lukashenka is a puppet in Putin's hands.

The situation in Belarus after the Maidan protests in Kyiv was discussed in the programme “Roads to Freedom” on the air of the Ukrainian and Russian services of RFE/RL. Programme host Vitaly Portnikov talked to Natallia Radzina, the editor-in-chief of charter97.org.

– Hello, it's Roads to Freedom on the air. Today our guest is the editor-in-chief of the website Charter-97, Natallia Radzina. We'll talk how Belarusian opposition feels in the changing world and how the Maidan protests and events after them influenced the moods of Belarusian democrats.

Natallia, I remember our conversation in Warsaw during the Maidan protests. You told me how Belarusian opposition members were disappointed after the 2004 revolution, when new president Viktor Yushchenko met with Aliaksandr Lukashenka, tried to establish warm relations with the Belarusian leader and didn't mention violations of human rights and democratic freedoms in Belarus. Moreover, he tried to be a sort of Lukashenka's advocate in Europe. It was Viktor Yushchenko's main foreign policy task during his second presidential term. You said then it would be bitter if the new Ukrainian authorities began to establish contacts with Lukashenka without any conditions after the Maidan 2014. You said it would disappoint the Belarusians. I thought it was unlikely to happen in the current political situation, because democratic principles of the Maidan 2014 were more evident than those of the Orange Revolution. But the war changed everything. Are you disappointed now?

– Disappointment is not the only matter. It is very dangerous. Of course, I am disappointed, because Belarusians have always looked with a hope at the struggle of the Ukrainian people, both during the first Maidan protests and the second Maidan. Moreover, hundreds of Belarusians fought together with their Ukrainian brothers during the Orange Revolution, and Belarusian Mikhail Zhyzneuski died during the Euromaidan.

– He was the first among those killed.

– Yes, he was the first. When the Maidan wins and the leader of the new democratic country makes his first visit to Belarus and kisses Lukashenka, of course, it demoralises the Belarusians who have always had solidarity with you. It is dangerous because such actions legitimate the Lukashenka regime.

What did Viktor Yushchenko do when he said he would be Lukashenka's advocate in Europe? He, in fact, broke the international isolation of the dictator. It lead to the so called dialogue between Europe and the repressive regime of Lukashenka. Europe began to close eyes to human rights violations in Belarus. Lukashenka began to receive loans from the West. It saved his unreformed economy from collapse, and internal repressions were tightened in the country. I'd like to recall that founder of charter97.org, my colleague Aleh Biabenin, was killed in that period. As a result, the so called dialogue with Lukashenka ended with the arrest of about 1000 people on 19 December 2010, jail terms for most independent presidential candidates and members of their teams and a brutal crackdown.

– On the other hand, you should admit that interim president of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov had his reasons for meeting with Lukashenka. Ukraine was almost in the siege. Crimea was annexed, far more Russian troops than today were concentrated near our borders. It was a huge danger of invading Ukraine. I think the fear of an attack from the Belarusian direction, too, the fear that Russian troops could cross the Ukrainian-Belarusian border was huge. He had to secure his country from a possible invasion from two fronts.

– Do you believe in your words?

– I am trying to explain Tuchynov's arguments.

– Yes, I understand. Can you believe that the dictator, the Kremlin's puppet that has been remaining in power for 20 years due to Russian money, can be an ally of democratic Ukraine and restrain Russian troops if Putin gives an order to launch an offensive from Belarus?

– He cannot be an ally of democratic Ukraine, but perhaps, he can be an ally of Ukraine in principle. The survival of Belarus, whatever it can be, democratic or under the rule of Lukashenka, much depends on the survival of Ukraine as a state, I suppose.

– Lukashenka does not care about the future of Belarus, he cares only about his own future. He exists on Russian money due to Putin's support and loyalty. He is a puppet in the hands of his Russian master.

I understand, of course, the new Ukrainian authorities. I understand that looking for any allies is vital in the war. We warn the new Ukrainian government against trusting Lukashenka, though, I think, they do not trust him. You know that Ukraine will be attacked from the north if the order is given.

I understand your fears. But if you are a democratic country, if you have come to power through a revolution, it is important to show solidarity with Belarusian democratic forces instead of the dictator. If you come to Minsk and meet with Lukashenka, don't forget to meet with democratic leaders and relatives of political prisoners. It will be the best display of solidarity with the people of Belarus.

– You know, I have a feeling after Russia's incursion in Ukraine that we did not understand, to a large extent, what is statehood in the post-Soviet area. The statehood depended only on the parent state. Russia delivered gas to Ukraine and Belarus when it wanted and stopped delivering it when it didn't want. It agreed with the democratic choice of people if it wanted and didn't agree when it didn't want. The Ukrainian statehood before the Maidan, as well as Belarusian, Kazakh and other statehood, is something artificial, because these countries do not have armies to defend themselves from Russia and do not have special services able to monitor activities of Russian subversive groups. They also do not have opportunities to prevent economic blows to the statehood. Lukashenka can manoeuvre, but how much space is he given? They can say him he won't get money, and it will be the end.

– Yes, his leash is short.

– I think that society agrees with this model of statehood. My friends from Belarus say they do not pay attention to the government and just live their lives.

– It is a phenomenon of the Soviet times, the so called internal immigration. But it doesn't mean that Belarusian society supports the model established in Belarus by Lukashenka. We should understand today that it is a brutal repressive regime that cannot be compared with the situation in Ukraine under Kuchma or Yanukovych.

– I think our life during three months of the Maidan was what the Belarusians have all the time.

– You are absolutely right. I remember you wrote after one of the nights of tense confrontation at the Maidan: “I now understand how my Belarusian friends have been living for the last 20 years”. I like this comparison. It is actually important that you understood it. Unfortunately, there are not many people in Ukraine who understand what the Lukashenka regime is. Belarus has 7 times as many policemen per 100,000 people as the Soviet Union had. It is the brutal repressive regime that keeps power by military means and enjoys active support from Russia. Any protests seem unlikely in Belarus, but I have no doubts it will be an outbreak in Belarus in future. People along the EU borders react like that. They've got tired of dictators.

– Can the Belarusian state survive in principle if the “outbreak”, as you say, happens? Russia has more opportunities to control the situation in Belarus than it had in Ukraine.

– I am confident that as long as the Belarusians who consider themselves Belarusians live and as long as Belarusian patriots, and we have a lot of them in the country, live, Belarus will live.

The situation in Ukraine is more complicated. It's much simpler with Belarus. I once talked to my American friend, the head of an organisation, and he said Belarus would join the European Union very soon, because the only problem we had was Lukashenka.

– Don't you think that Belarus and Kazakhstan are parts of the world model as Russia wants it to see? Does the Eurasian Union fulfills this task?

– It is true only from the viewpoint of the union of dictators. All of them have the same aim today – to survive at any price and improve the mechanism of repression against people. In no circumstances is it the will of the Belarusians, Russians or Kazakhs. The union is a reptile cage with the dictators, each of whom has own ambitions. Both Nazarbayev and Lukashenka fear Putin, because his aim is to restore the Russian Empire.

– What will Lukashenka do in this situation? Is he ready to resist the project?

– Lukashenka has found himself in a stalemate. If he resists Putin, he will be removed in no time; if he obeys, he will lose the remains of our independence. He has driven himself into a corner. He has been eliminating the patriotic opposition, independent media and concentrating power in his hands. He has driven the country into international isolation. He is a hostage of Putin. In the great scheme of things, Putin doesn't need Lukashenka any more.

– But Lukashenka has always had a talent of creating a safe harbor for himself even when Russia had certain problems.

– Belarus has become a smuggling zone to transit goods from the West to Russia bypassing sanctions. Belarus actively sells refined Russian oil to Europe. It is the main part of the Belarusian export. Lukashenka's repressive regime relies on these things today. I'd like to warn the new Ukrainian authorities not to lobby interests of Lukashenka in the IMF to get new loans, and not to save his regime.

– I hope the Ukrainian government will hear your warning.