Leanid Zaiko: March Revolution May Happen in Belarus

Lukashenka has failed to run the country.

The International rating agency Fitch Ratings published a report proving ratings of Belarus. Long-term ratings for default in foreign and national currencies remain at the "B-" level with a stable forecast, as well as the position of the country's credit ceiling and the short-term ones at "B" level.

Economists Leanid Zlotnikau and Leanid Zaiko were asked for explanations.

"The situation is very complex." The gas debt is about $600 million - a significant sum, of course -, but this year it is expected to get $600 million of the Eurasion Development Bank. It is likely that Russia will exact this money for gas. Belarus may not take money it is waiting on! As a result of this operation, the financial situation of the state may face deterioration. The "B-" rating means that the country is on the verge of collapse. As soon as I understand it is an unpleasant perspective, I see no ground for optimism, as well as some money inflow to Belarus," an interlocutor points out.

This hope mostly relates to the money of the Eurasian Development Bank; Fitch's report mentions its extended delay. Other possibilities are out of question.

"The government needs this rating because it gives a chance to borrow money through euro bonds on a global foreign-exchange market. And this rating is not trustworthy for borrowings! If we succeed, it can be done only at high interest rates, we will not be able to redeem. For two-three years the authorities have been trying to take a new loan - there have been trips to South-East Asia, Europe. But the low rating is the ground for refusal," Leanid Zlotnikau explains.

Minsk has very fragile relations with Russia.

"In fact, it has started in the 90s and the things are getting worse. But now Putin behaves unpredictably, if not to say worse - let's take relations with Europe as an example! And such unpredictable actions may be expected towards Belarus. This year Putin - after all, he is the head - may not give any loans and consider the Eurasian one as debt repayment!" expert believes.

In turn, economist and political scientist Leonid Zaiko draws attention to the fact that it is unforgivable to impute debts of the authorities to the entire country.

"Our journalists have a good sense of humor, they'd better work at Lukashenka's Administration, not in an independent press. You must write it! I have a special look at pay bills: households pay not $132 for thousands of gas cubes, but $142. In the light of a new price that Russians are going to set, we've already paid for everything! Kilowatt of electricity, for example, cost about six American cents, in neighbouring countries it equals to four. "So the population does not owe to neither Russia, nor to Zimbabwe!" he says.

According to the political scientist, the gas price dispute is artificial.

"It makes a lot of fun for a specialist to observe the way aircraft designer Kabyakau and lawyer Medvedev discuss the problem connected with a natural monopoly and the price of the monopolistic Gazprom!" Leanid Zaiko resents.

The Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kabyakau has actually graduated from the Moscow Aviation Institute, and the head of the Russian government Dmitry Medvedev graduated from the law department of the former Leningrad State University.

"This is a show performed by Aliaksandr Ryhoravich and Vladimir Putin. The population does not need these performances, but Aliaksandr Ryhoravich has started to use sovereignty and his desire to defend a Belarus which he has actually driven to a serious financial crisis. Putin has decided to end the saga of a good and gentle love of Lukashenka to Kremlin: he has nailed him down and now cuts him down to size because Lukashenka has driven the economy into this state, the expert sums up.

"The revolution will happen!"

As a result, mass protests may begin.

"A quarter of enterprises are loss-making, and the directorate basically wipes the floor with them. In case of poor financial state people will take the streets, an ordinary February or March revolution will take place (the way it happened in 1917!). All talks on the gas war ("Russians force Belarusians into something", "try to knee us") are conducted by one person everybody knows in Belarus," Leanid Zaiko added.

Whatever evaluations Fitch or other rating agencies do, they will not change the situation in Belarus.

"Unfortunately, everything depends only on the management that is in the hands of one person." In fact, money for gas cannot be paid by enterprises that are run by persons appointed by Aliaksandr Ryhoravich. The economy and the manufacturing sector, like all the leadership of the country is a complete failure!" the expert stated.

"Let the presidential Mercedes be sold

Therefore, the responsibility for the Moscow gas entirely lies on the shoulders of officials, the economist believes.

"Today we can say the Kremlin: "Mr. Putin, 9.5 million Belarusians pay for public services in full and on time. We owe to no one and we need no subsidies. And if the president and his bad-skilled directors owe to you, let them pay! All ministers have apartments and houses, every head of 118 regions - guys in black suits - drive Mercedes donated by the president, let them sell them and pay debts," he offers.