Is Diplomatic War Possible Between Vilnius And Minsk?

The relations between Belarus and Lithuania are entering a new level of tension.

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite believes that Belarus, together with the Russian Federation, is a geopolitical threat to the country. Minsk is angry and indignant. Ambassador of Lithuania, summoned by the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, had to give explanations. Could it happen that a diplomatic war will break out between Belarus and Lithuania? The head of the Department of Political Science of the University of Vytautas, dr. Andrzej Pukszto answered this and other questions to Charter97.org.

– How would you comment on the words of the Lithuanian President that Belarus and Russia are a geopolitical threat?

– I think that the following factors were the reason why the President expressed her opinion exactly that way. First, the joint Russian-Belarusian major military exercises "West 2017". Second, Lithuania continues to feel threat from the construction of Minsk nuclear power plant in Astravets, at a distance of only fifty kilometers from Vilnius.

– Minsk has already expressed its discontent; the Ambassador of Lithuania in Belarus Andrius Pulokas had to defend the position of Vilnius.

– Frankly speaking, the relations between Minsk and Vilnius have long been far from ideal, so they will not deteriorate. However, it is worth remembering that Dalia Grybauskaite tried to establish good relations with Lukashenka at the beginning of her first presidential term. It was then that the governor of Belarus received an invitation to Vilnius. However, there still is no single position regarding Lukashenka in the European Union. On the one hand, there is an opinion that there should be no negotiations with the dictator and he should be isolated. Representatives of the other side believe that there's point in negotiations and solving common problems, which will contribute to growing distance between him and Russia.

– If the diplomatic scandal continues, what impact will this have on the Lithuanian-Belarusian political relations?

– If the escalation continues and the diplomatic scandal grows, then it may come to recalling the ambassadors. However, it seems to me that it will not come to this yet, because Lithuania and Belarus practically do not cooperate. Of course, it would be very unpleasant if there is an escalation of conflict, good relations with neighbors are valuable, but a political "earthquake" will not happen.

However, weather it comes to the escalation or not depends not only on Lithuania, but also on Minsk. One of the main factors that will further determine the policy and further actions of Lukashenka are his close relations with the Kremlin. If Lukashenka finds a way to slip at least partially from Vladimir Putin's embrace, he will seek a platform for dialogue with the countries of the European Union, including Lithuania.