Kommersant: There Is Race For Power In Belarus, Lukashenka's Situation Is Extremely Difficult

The usurper is trapped between his own protests and his only not so friendly "ally."

Kommersant FM political observer Dmitry Drize considers Alexander Lukashenka's situation to be extremely difficult.

A week after, Aliaksandr Lukashenka revealed the details of his talks with Vladimir Putin in Sochi. For a start, the ruler of Belarus called "a 70-percent fantasy" everything that has been said in this regard up to now. Therefore the following question inevitably arises: why was this pause necessary then? Why not inform the public at once, so as to avoid any false rumours? The answer is quite clear: it's not that simple in the relations between the two countries, and not only in them.

Well, be that as it may, it is possible to deduce from the numerous florid phrases several important theses at once. Firstly: there will be no integration between Russia and Belarus, at least in the near future. Secondly: the presidential election will take place next year already. So, theoretically, his resignation is not far off. And the third thing: Gazprom's participation in upgrading of Hrodna Azot is possible. This means that Lukashenka is ready to start the big haggling over privatization. There is an opinion that Russia is no longer going to finance the Belarusian economy for nothing. The ally is asking for assets in exchange. And it is not difficult to understand what this means - it's the takeover, but it is called by the beautiful word of "privatization".

This is extremely unpleasant. Lukashenka finds himself squeezed between his own protests and the only ally, who is not very friendly and strives to annex or absorb you. It is not even clear which is worse - the first or the second. Aliaksandr is traditionally trying to soften the blow, to maneuver. So, he remembered about the military base, which he promised almost 10 years ago.

However, the most interesting thing starts next. Against this background, a race for power has evidently begun in the so-called official Belarus, in the elites. It is certainly not possible to state anything, but it is noticeable by indirect signs. In particular, the dictator disfavours his own son - Viktar Lukashenka has been dismissed from the post of the assistant to the president, although with a rank of major-general in the reserve. As they say, sent out of sight.

The story is typical of such regimes.

The eldest son - this is not a relative. On the one hand, he is the heir, and on the other, he is a person inseparable from his family name. It is quite possible that Viktar is not at all thrilled at the prospect of being responsible for his father's sins. And, as is customary, scheming courtiers concentrate around such figures. Rumors of a split in the ruling family have long been circulating.

Meanwhile, spring is here, and the great Belarusian intrigue is returning.