‘Russian Lieutenant Colonel Captured By Wagnerites Demonstrated His Cowardice And Conformity’

How will the conflict between Prigozhin and Russia’s MoD develop?

The leader of the private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced the capture of Russian lieutenant colonel, commander of the brigade of the Russian army Roman Venevitin during a shootout. This happened during the retreating of the Wagnerites from Bakhmut.

Charter97.org asked military expert Oleksiy Melnyk, the Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes and Coordinator of International Projects at the Razumkov Center, the First Assistant to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2005-2008), to comment on the conflict between regular Russian troops and Prigozhin’s PMC:

– Firstly, if we evaluate the category of such an incident, then this is far from the first case. Prigozhin allows himself to criticize Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and others. Public criticism is such a demonstration of complete disregard, disregard for any laws. If we take this unfortunate brigade commander, then he is far from the first. Before that, there were people I listed. There is only a difference in circumstances and details.

– A battle broke out between the Wagnerites and the Russian military when the mercenaries retreated from Bakhmut. What can such incidents tell us about internal issues of the Russian army?

– Let's go back a little and remember the backstory, when Prigozhin announced the exit from Bakhmut. At that time, many experts, including me, questioned the possibility of such an unhindered exit for many reasons. Firstly, from a simple military point of view, this would lead to the weakening of such an important sector for the Russians - Bakhmut.

Secondly, the question that was probably asked at least by the Russian military command, and, perhaps, by someone in the political leadership of Russia: “Where will Wagner go next?”.

There would be no problem if Prigogine did not demonstrate political ambitions, but simply would like to go back to his beloved Africa or the Middle East.

But quite substantial reasons arose to believe that he had a taste for politics and would certainly try to implement some of his next projects in Russia.

Confirmation of these assumptions did not take long. Prigozhin has already stated that he can take care of the "security of the Belgorod region". In general, the Russian leadership likely wants Prigozhin or at least some of his trained combat-ready troops to get stuck and dissolve in the Bakhmut area.

As for shootings, information about such incidents became publicly available. However, let’s say, it was of a very low level, when some groups competed. For example, the Armed Forces with the FSB or the Kadyrovites with someone. These were rather incidents that testify to the degradation of the state system in Russia. On the other hand, this is a rather small scale compared to the conflicts with Prigozhin’s company that have already happened and will continue.

In my opinion, I repeat, this is another strong evidence of the degradation of Russia as a state.

– Do you see the prerequisites for the conflict between mercenaries and the Russian military to become more serious?

– I assume that this will not happen today or tomorrow, but let's try to predict the actions of the military, who received serious public humiliation, starting with this brigade commander. The commander demonstrated on camera, in my opinion, such characteristic qualities of a Russian officer as cowardice and conformity.

It is obvious that it was not his personal initiative to fight against the Prigozhinites. He knows who Prigozhin is, and the personalities of his patrons. He was following someone's order most likely. What will those who gave him the order do? Even if they do not protect him, do not try to restore justice, punish the guilty, they will do almost the same as the opponents have done to this brigade commander to pay off Prigozhin.

These are all prerequisites for the fact that this conflict is far from being exhausted. It is clear that Prigozhin showed that he was not afraid of anyone. By the way, if we talk about whether the leader of the Wagner will be punished for the capture of the Russian lieutenant colonel, then most likely not.

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