Lukashenka's ‘Promises’ Won't Ensure Prigozhin's Survival

The insane dictator can also "disappear".

Dictator Lukashenka may become the primary victim of recent events in Russia.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, spoke about this in an interview on the Studio X-97 show. Host: Yevhen Klimakin.

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– Let's start our conversation with the hottest topics. The Wagnerites in Belarus and Prigozhin. Why does Lukashenka need them there?

– I thought that Lukashenka would be smart enough not to allow the Wagner PMC into Belarus. That is, everything is limited only to granting the Wagner PMC some competence, which was discussed during Lukashenka’s negotiations with Prigozhin on the day of the take-over attempt in Russia. I believe that on June 24, 2023, there was a take-over attempt for sure. However, we see they are building field camps for the Wagner PMC in Belarus. One of these camps is in the Asipovichy district of the Mahiliou region, the settlement of Tsel. There are available pictures of these tents, wooden flooring, made for the fighters of the Wagner PMC.

There will be at least three of these camps on the territory of Belarus, and this creates a serious threat, of course, not only for the people of our country, but also for the Lukashenka regime. That is why I thought that he was aware of these threats and would still try to resist Putin's plans to deploy the PMC in Belarus. But we see that today Lukashenka has no subjectivity, and this will lead to destabilization both in the situation inside the country and destabilization of the regime too.

Why did I think that he would be brainy enough not to place them on the territory of Belarus? We see that his position makes it really impossible to resist Putin today and he accepts these bandits in the country. I am convinced, they will eventually go against him.

– Do you think that he was forced to allow the Wagnerites into Belarus?

– Most likely, yes, or he has completely gone crazy with fear, because, as some experts suggest that he is afraid of the offensive of the Belarusian volunteers from Ukraine and does not trust his own army, because there are doubts that the army will go against the Belarusian volunteers, but rather go over to their side. However, he is still counting on the Wagner PMC. But this is such a time-delay bomb, because Lukashenka himself can become the main victim in this situation.

– How can the Belarusian people defend themselves in this situation? What to do?

– What to do? The situation is very difficult. So what should residents of the occupied Crimea do? What should people in the occupied Donbas do? The situation is extremely difficult for people in Belarus, because, of course, everyone today is under the yoke of such horrible repressions, which have been carried out daily for the past three years. But I am convinced that the constant deterioration of the situation in Belarus will eventually lead to social resistance. Because people are now beginning to understand that no one will protect them except themselves. Yes, many hope for the Belarusian volunteers today, those who are fighting in Ukraine. But the more time passes, the more people become confident that they need to protect themselves. And therefore it is difficult to predict what scenarios will be. However, I do not rule out that there may be some kind of social explosion due to such a deterioration in the situation within the country.

– Will Prigozhin be killed? What do you think?

– It’s hard to say. He is hiding now. His location is still unknown. Apparently, he is not in Belarus, because he understands that Lukashenka's guarantees are worth nothing in this situation. Of course, the dictator cannot give any guarantees to Prigozhin. Putin also has repeatedly called him a traitor. Probably, further attempts will be made to put pressure on Prigozhin and somehow inactivate his PMC. Because we see that his Patriot media group has been closed in Russia and that the Russian MoD has terminated the contract with his Concord catering company. We see that not all of the PMC’s troops will be moved, thank God, to the territory of Belarus, some, apparently, will leave for Africa, Syria, and some will remain.

– By the way, there were detentions of Wagner leaders in Syria.

– This information was later refuted. Therefore, we do not know exactly what happened there, but we see that recruitment to PMCs on the territory of Russia is already ending. Those of them who remain to fight in Ukraine will apparently sign contracts, roughly speaking, with the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Therefore, there are a lot of questions, it is difficult to predict anything now. One of these questions: “And who will finance the Wagner PMC on the territory of Belarus?” Because, as it turned out, a year ago, Putin cynically lied when he said that Wagner was not funded through the Russian budget. Today, both he and his Minister of Defense Shoigu are declaring that billions of dollars are being spent on the Wagner PMC from the budget.

Thus, if they leave the jurisdiction of Russia and appear on the territory of Belarus, who will finance, who will feed these thousands of the Wagnerites in Belarus?

– And they love money.

– Sure, they love money very much ...