Political Analyst: Putin Wants To Open Another Front

10.09.2025, 16:28
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NATO's response must be tough.

Russian drones massively violated Polish airspace, prompting an emergency response from Warsaw and allies. Polish President Karol Nawrocki announced his intention to enforce Article 4 of the NATO Charter, and European leaders emphasized full solidarity with Poland. Against the backdrop of the attack, there are calls for stronger defense and discussion of collective measures against Russian aggression.

Can we expect this attack to lead to concrete military or political measures against Russia? The website Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigory Mesežnikov about this:

- This is the only opportunity to show that the West does not intend to tolerate such provocations. If the response is weak, it will become obvious: Russia is simply testing, testing how the West will react. Depending on this, the Kremlin will act further. Putin is known for always trying to keep the West in suspense. He said so even before the invasion of Ukraine, and today he is trying to repeat the same tactic. But now he realizes: the united collective West is much stronger. Against the backdrop of failures in the war, where he failed to conquer Ukraine and eliminate Ukrainian statehood, Putin is trying again to open "another front."

We have already seen this: in 2014 - the annexation of Crimea, the war in eastern Ukraine, in parallel he launched an operation in Syria. Now the Kremlin may try to get involved in a new armed conflict. Whether it will be full-scale or localized is hard to say. But the outcome depends on the tough reaction of NATO countries and the European Union. And, of course, the position of the United States is very important.

- Poland has decided to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Charter for the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine. What is the significance of this and what steps can the Alliance really resort to?

- In my opinion, the activation of Article 4 of the NATO Charter is now minimally necessary. But given that Poland has been attacked, we can also talk about Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The fourth one presupposes consultations and harmonization of steps. The fifth is already collective defense. As far as I know, Article 5 of the NATO Charter was invoked only once - after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. And today the appropriate response would be to let Russia know that the Alliance is ready for the same level of response.

How that might happen is hard to say. But the drones flew, as far as is known, from the territory of Russia and Belarus. The logical step would be to close the skies over Ukraine so that the allies could shoot down anything flying from Russia in the direction of Ukraine or NATO countries. This would be an effective but moderate response.

If this is not enough, then we can discuss the possibility of shooting down missiles directly over Russian territory. We see a similar practice in Israel: it intercepts Hussite and Iranian missiles over Saudi Arabia and Egypt without waiting for them to reach Israel.

Besides military measures, it is necessary to strengthen sanctions against Russia and increase support for Ukraine. Aid is available, but Ukraine has not yet received it in full. Strengthening sanctions, diplomatic isolation of Moscow and closing the skies over Ukraine are steps that could change the situation.

The West has not yet decided to close the skies, but now a new opportunity is presented. NATO has enough resources to do so. Ukraine is a large country, but the Alliance brings together dozens of nations, to which the United States is added. If necessary, they can also provide military-technical assistance.

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Political Analyst: Putin Wants To Open Another Front

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