"It Can Be Seen That Lukashenko Has A 'fire'."
8- 23.09.2025, 13:25
- 23,590
The dictator will have to make concessions.
The Belarusian-Polish border has remained closed for more than ten days, and the situation has turned into an important element of a big diplomatic game. Following the visit to Warsaw by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a representative of China's top leadership Li Xi arrived in Minsk. Lukashenko was forced to make excuses and seek support from the Chinese, who are actually mediating the talks between Warsaw and Minsk.
What key topics are discussed at Li Xi's meetings with Lukashenko and the Belarusian leadership? What exactly does China seek?
About this, Charter97.org spoke with economist and political observer Dmitry Bolkunets:
- I think that among the issues that could be planned for this visit, one of the main ones for China is the guarantee of safe transit of cargo. Considering that this route provides about 4% of all rail freight to Europe, it is extremely important for the PRC, especially for the landlocked western regions of the country. Therefore, the problems that have arisen on the border, in particular its closure, are surely being discussed.
It is not by chance that Lukashenko himself brought it up. This emphasizes that the topic could be a key one in the negotiations.
- After Wang Yi's visit to Warsaw and his talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, what demands could the Polish side convey to Lukashenko through Chinese mediators?"
- I believe there were several. The West-2025 exercise was only a formal reason for closing the border. One of the main demands is an end to the migration crisis, which Lukashenko has been artificially supporting for the fourth year. Poland has to spend considerable resources to protect its security.
The second component is the regime's provocations against Polish citizens and the Polish minority in Belarus: arrests and pressure. Warsaw is demanding the extradition of the murderer of a Polish soldier at the border. In addition, Poland insists on the release of Andrzej Poczobut, as well as other political prisoners. It may not always sound public, but these are the kinds of demands being made. I think China has heard this position.
If you compare China's trade with Poland and with Belarus, the difference is tenfold. It is obvious which side Beijing will choose, taking into account the scale of trade with the European Union.
Belarus in this situation acts only as a country that hinders the normal transit of goods. Lukashenko is to blame for this: with his ineffective policy he creates conflicts and inconveniences for business partners.
- Can we assume that Lukashenko will make concessions - at least partial - to please Beijing and achieve the opening of the border with Poland? I am sure he will be forced to do so. Otherwise, the border will remain closed for a long time - both for cargo and for people. We are witnessing a new "iron curtain" in Europe: the border has slammed shut for both citizens and businesses.
Of course, it is bad that people are suffering. But such measures should have been introduced 3-4 years ago. Then, perhaps, the war would not have happened. Unfortunately, some politicians and business lobbyists put financial interests above human rights. This created the current problems.
Closing the border is not a sanctions measure, but a temporary step to protect citizens and rescue hostages. Such actions force the regime to make decisions. It can be seen that Lukashenko's "fire is burning". He is already indirectly blaming the US for the situation, claiming that Washington allegedly wants to tear China away from Europe. But these insinuations are not confirmed by anything.
The facts are simple: Lukashenko continues to plant migrants on the border and organizes provocations against Poles. Huge queues - 30-40 kilometers - have become the norm. This is unacceptable. Therefore, we can assume that in the future the parties will sit down at the negotiating table in order to reduce the degree of tension.
I'm sure that Lukashenko may eventually come to this. He is, of course, a sheep - just a real sheep. He behaves not like a man capable of compromise, but like a real stubborn sheep, who tries hard to demonstrate his position and his stubbornness.
Another factor that can accelerate the opening of the border is the release of political prisoners. This topic is in the focus of US President Donald Trump's personal attention. After his call and the Nobel laureates addressed him, the issue became a priority. If Lukashenko would release at least most of the political prisoners, it would be a serious step. But like a sheep, he hopes to get money for them.
Nobody will give him money. He can improve the situation, but only by releasing all political prisoners. And very correctly, President Trump called them not prisoners, but hostages - political hostages. This is a really accurate definition.
- How do you assess the likelihood that Poland will insist not only on the cessation of hybrid attacks, but also on the release of political prisoners as a condition for opening the border?"
- Such demands have already been made. In July 2024, when there was an escalation on the border, Poland partially blocked the movement of goods for two days. This led to the beginning of the release of political prisoners: On July 2, Lukashenko was forced to take this step. Negotiations were conducted through an intergovernmental closed group.
The process later slowed down, but it is possible that Lukashenko has now received similar recommendations from Poland again, possibly in a closed format. I think that this channel of communication is still maintained today.
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