WSJ: Putin Had Four Plans For Ukraine
- 13.11.2026, 9:33
Two of them have already failed.
Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin has four bets on how to win the war in Ukraine. Two of them are that the Ukrainian army will collapse, or that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump will force Kyiv to submit to Moscow’s demands. Both of these “aren’t looking good.”
But Putin’s other two strategies have a better chance of working out by next year: to paralyze the Ukrainian economy with relentless missile and drone strikes and wait until European support wanes under pressure from political parties that are gaining popularity by opposing aid to Kyiv, writes The Wall Street Journal.
This week’s talks in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the U.S., showed that: The Kremlin remains committed to its original military objectives—to dismember and subjugate Ukraine, while simultaneously reshaping the postwar order in Europe.
Most observers agree that Putin will most likely wait until early 2027 to see how his strategies play out, and only then decide whether to continue on his current course or adjust it, journalists note.
“Spring is what Russians will be waiting for. They want to see what this missile campaign will yield,” as well as who will win the upcoming presidential election in France, said Hannah Notte , director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey . “And then they’ll take stock of the situation.”
But even in that case, Notte believes, Russia will most likely revise its strategy but will not abandon its goals.
No “Trump Card”
When Trump returned to the White House last year, promising to end the war in a single day, the Kremlin hoped he would force Ukraine to make territorial and other concessions. Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly: “You have no trump cards right now.”
But despite U.S. pressure, Kyiv rejected Putin’s demands to hand over the territories that Russian troops had failed to capture. And Trump’s early moves, which nearly halted all U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine, only diminished the White House’s influence.
However, the U.S. can still exert pressure on Ukraine, according to media reports. Zelenskyy recently reported that the Ukrainian military has again encountered disruptions in the operation of the military Starlink service from SpaceX owned by Elon Musk, which operates in cooperation with the Pentagon. Back in October, Musk had already restricted access to the Ukrainian military’s Starlink service—amid tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy.
Moscow is trying to persuade the White House to lift sanctions—even without a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin is dangling tempting business offers in front of American investors in Trump’s inner circle and his envoys.
However, these economic initiatives have not yet gained widespread traction, although the White House has already eased some sanctions, and U.S. officials are lobbying for economic deals with Russia as part of the peace process. And now that the Democrats have taken control of Congress following the recent midterm elections, it will become even more difficult for the Trump administration to continue easing sanctions.
Despite Trump’s friendly gestures toward Putin, the Kremlin had expected more, the article states. Russian officials make no secret of their disappointment that Ukraine continues to resist.
War Against Cities
This year, Russia has suffered its worst performance on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine since 2022. Attempts to encircle Ukrainian defensive strongholds in the eastern part of the Donetsk region have failed. Russia is now making a final attempt to break through before winter makes the offensive even more difficult. But for now, the Ukrainian army is holding its ground, despite a chronic shortage of troops.
Earlier this year, Russia replaced its top military command in Ukraine—in part due to criticism over massive casualties. But the Russian offensive continues to make slow progress under a sky filled with drones—a revolution in the way war is waged that, for now, is working in the defenders’ favor, journalists note.
“Winter is usually the best time for a Russian offensive, but the Ukrainian drone presence on the front lines is now so overwhelming that only periods of bad weather—which limit drone operations—allow the Russians to advance,” said Konrad Muzyka, founder of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based military analysis firm.
As the situation on the battlefield has virtually stalled, Moscow has intensified its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure—from power plants and warehouses to Black Sea grain ports and bridges across the wide Dnieper River, which divides the country.
This campaign threatens to leave Ukrainian cities virtually without electricity, heating, and water supplies on the eve of winter. If the relentless missile strikes lead to a humanitarian crisis and bring the Ukrainian economy to a standstill, the country could become even more dependent on European funding to cover the growing costs of the war.
The European Front
The Kremlin, however, understands perfectly well that Europe is currently Ukraine’s main ally, but at the same time its potential weak spot. Putin’s hopes for victory rest largely on the assumption that European political support for Ukraine will fracture before the pressure of the war becomes unbearable for his regime.
Slow economic growth in Europe, strained social programs, and high energy prices are already taking a toll on the approval ratings of current governments, most of which support Ukraine. In contrast, left-wing and right-wing populists—who often express strong sympathy for Russia—are gaining popularity.
In France, nationalist Marine Le Pen, who, according to polls, is the frontrunner in the upcoming spring presidential election, promises to cut French and European funding for Ukraine.
Germany’s most popular party—the far-right “Alternative for Germany”—advocates resuming large-scale purchases of Russian gas, undermining the country’s efforts to end its energy dependence on Moscow. In Italy, where national elections are scheduled for next year, parties from both the ruling center-right coalition and the center-left opposition oppose aid to Ukraine.
So far, European governments are holding their ground—despite an energy shortage that has been further exacerbated this year by the war between the U.S. and Iran.
Putin has stated that he wants to cooperate with Europe in further peace talks, but only on the condition that the continent speaks with one voice. This demand will most likely only exacerbate existing disagreements among Europeans over who exactly should represent them, journalists note.
Russia’s economic reserves are not infinite either
It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to cover the growing financial deficit, as military spending already accounts for a third or more of all government spending. Regional authorities, which are already facing a shortage of funds, are cutting payments to the families of fallen soldiers.
“We are dealing with a very unstable system,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, a Berlin-based think tank.
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