WSJ: Summer Is Going To Be Crucial

Will Kiev be able to turn local successes into a strategic turning point.

In recent months, the course of the war has been increasingly unsuccessful for Russia: Ukrainian forces have managed to significantly impede the actions of the vastly outnumbered Russian army and have gained a notable tactical and technological advantage. According to The Wall Street Journal, this summer it will become clear whether Kiev will be able to turn these local successes into a strategic breakthrough.

At the same time, experts warn against hasty conclusions about the arrival of the decisive moment. Analysts estimate that Russia's situation is deteriorating, but not yet enough to force Vladimir Putin to reconsider his goals.

Military analyst Franz-Stephan Gadi notes that Ukraine today looks stronger than many expected, but the war is cyclical and each side is constantly adapting. He says the main question is whether Russia can find an effective response to Ukraine's technological and tactical improvements. At the current stage, he said, it is only possible to confidently predict developments only a few weeks ahead.

The pace of the Russian advance in 2026 has been the slowest in two years, despite heavy casualties, which analysts estimate at 35,000 killed and wounded monthly.

Ukrainian units have markedly improved their ability to counter Russian stealthy infiltration tactics, making heavy use of reconnaissance drones and mobile sweep teams. Some brigades are also mastering new counteroffensive methods combining infantry and drone action.

Although chronic personnel shortages prevent Ukraine from making large-scale breakthroughs, the situation on the front has changed: whereas in 2025 Kiev was largely on the defensive, now parts of the 600-mile front line have become a zone of fighting with variable success.

One of the key drivers of change has been Ukraine's success in using medium-range drones - from 20 to 200 miles from the contact line. Devices like the Hornet and FP-2 are striking Russian logistics facilities, command posts, air defense systems and warehouses deep behind the lines, complicating supplies to troops on the front lines.

In addition, Ukraine has stepped up its defenses against Russian drones, creating a layered system of radar control, electronic warfare and mobile interception teams. Analysts say it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to operate effectively at these ranges.

The Russian army is also facing personnel problems. According to Gadi, since the end of 2025, the number of killed and seriously wounded has effectively equaled the number of new recruits, halting the growth of strike units.

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