Why Ukraine Is Scaring Lukashenko

Andrei Bronishevsky
19.05.2026, 7:36
2,400

Now the WSU has something to answer with.

Following the massive strike on Moscow on Sunday morning, the commander of Ukraine's Robert Brody Unmanned Systems Force advised Alexander Lukashenko to take a closer look at the prospects. The advice is timely. A few days earlier, President Zelensky said that Ukrainian authorities were aware of Putin's attempts to draw Belarus into a war. And if your opponent knows where the attack is being prepared from, it may not be worth attacking from there.

Earlier in May, Zelensky said Ukraine was seeing unusual activity on the Belarus-Ukraine border. Last week, he said that the Ukrainian authorities knew the details of the latest talks between Lukashenko and Putin.

"There is a lot of activity of the Russians now, I mean in talks with Alexander Lukashenko. They want to drag Belarus more into the war. To start additional aggressive operations from the territory of Belarus. Either against our Chernigov-Kiev direction, or against one of the NATO countries bordering Belarus," said Zelensky.

A few days before Zelensky's statement, Lukashenko announced that he was preparing for war. Of course, Lukashenko has been preparing for war for the last 30 years. Because there are enemies all around, and invisible bullets whistling from all sides. But since the beginning of this year, he has been taking quite practical actions to prepare for war.

First, the Belarusian army underwent an inspection of its combat readiness. Lukashenko did not like the results of the inspection. In April, Lukashenko signed a decree on conscription of reserve officers. And last week he announced a point mobilization of some military units and said that the army should be ready for a ground operation. On Monday, the Defense Ministry announced a training session on the use of nuclear weapons.

"Lukashenko is already repeating this like a parrot. Obviously, when such things are said from the mouth of such a person, it is not just bravado, but pressure. He does not want to go to war, but Putin wants him to go to war," said former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

Lukashenko almost certainly does not want to go to war. Because, for all his faults, he has a sober understanding of the level of combat readiness of his generals. But it is hard to refuse Putin, too.

"We are all preparing for war. God willing, we won't have to go to war," Lukashenko told Defense Minister Khrenin.

Because everything has changed since 2022, when Lukashenko could with impunity provide the territory of Belarus for an attack on Ukraine. Now it will no longer be possible with impunity. Now Ukraine has something to answer with. And the Ukrainians are unlikely to hold back this time.

"Lukashenko, keep your eyes on the horizon," Robert Brody wrote immediately after the latest strike on Moscow. - We are recording the passage of every single shaheddin who takes advantage of the corridors of Belarus to head for Ukraine."

And, on the one hand, there is something to watch. After the Ukrainian strikes on Russia, such warnings cannot be interpreted as empty threats. The Belarusian air defense system, which is unable to cope with even accidentally flown drones, will run out of air defense in three hours in case of mass Ukrainian attacks.

But, on the other hand, the Ukrainians are doing Lukashenko a great favor with their threats and warnings. Because they give him an additional argument in negotiations with Putin. If the enemy knows where the attack is coming from, then it is better not to attack from there.

It is not certain that Putin will listen to this argument. Putin still believes he can turn the tide of the war. Although in case of a new adventure from the territory of Belarus, his elderly ally is more likely to break down.

Andrei Bronishevsky, planbmedia.io

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Why Ukraine Is Scaring Lukashenko

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