"The AFU May Take Control Of The Crimean Bridge"
- 8.06.2026, 15:17
- 2,498
Kiev includes "Kherson scenario" for the peninsula?
The AFU is systematically cutting off the logistics of the Russian occupiers in Crimea. After a strike on the bridge near Chongar, the Dzhankoy checkpoint was closed, and today passenger trains were stopped on the peninsula .
What can be said now about Russian logistics to occupied Crimea? How successful are the AFU in cutting off the occupiers' supply routes? The website Charter97.org talked about this with Ukrainian military and political observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko:
- Now there is a process of destroying the logistics of the Russian group in the mainland south of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. These regions are connected by land corridors M-14, M-17, M-18, M-47, M-57 and others.
But here it is very important that Crimea plays the role of a logistical hub, a transit hub to the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions through Chongar and Armyansk. Accordingly, if we are talking about the task to completely cut off the logistics of the Russian southern grouping, which is the Dnepr group of troops, some units of the Center group of troops and others, then we are also talking about isolating Crimea as a logistics hub.
That is why a complex task is being carried out: land logistics is cut off on the mainland, and Crimea is being isolated in parallel, so that nothing enters or leaves it. This systematic work is now underway.
- The Crimean bridge remains a key supply artery for the Russian group. How likely is a new operation by the AFU against it?
- I think that so far we are not talking about a strike operation with a strike on the Kerch Bridge. But can we remotely take it under control, like the M-14 highway in the south of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions, in the direction of Mariupol and Berdyansk? I think so.
There is such a possibility, because the drones that we use, for example, to control logistics on the mainland of Ukraine, Hornet, RAV2X, Bulava, have a range of 150-200 kilometers. The Kerch Bridge seems to be further away, but this is no longer a secret or some kind of military secret. Part of the distance we can overcome with the help of an aerostat.
Installing a drone on an aerostat, we save the energy resource of the drone itself. In fact, it is possible to travel more than 50 kilometers at the expense of the aerostat. In fact, the aerostats can even, to some extent, drop drones literally over the Kerch Bridge, and they already start patrolling this road, both the railroad section and the highway.
The situation will be similar as with the M-14 highway on the Mariupol - Berdyansk section. The only difference is that on the highway Mariupol - Berdyansk the driver has at least some left-right maneuver, but on the Kerch bridge there is no maneuver. You jump either into the Sea of Azov or into the Black Sea. So it makes maneuvering much more difficult for the enemy and, conversely, makes it easier for the AFU to strike the target.
So I think it's more likely that it will be of this nature to control the Kerch bridge. Not a missile or drone strike, but control from the air.
- Can a complete halt of logistics to Crimea, as well as in the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, lead to a situation in 2022 on the right bank of the Kherson region, when the Russian occupants were forced to flee, abandoning their positions?
- It is too early to talk about it, but in principle it is real. And it may start not so much with the Zaporizhzhya region, but most likely with the Kherson region. Zaporizhzhya region is also vulnerable, but there, unfortunately, there is a common administrative border with Donetsk region, and there the rockades still work. Yes, we control them, yes, we fly there, but these rockades go towards the Russian Federation, and there is an inflow of cargo at least through Donetsk region. There is a cargo flow.
And the Kherson region is completely isolated. It rests either in the Black Sea or in Crimea, Armyansk. There is a road through Armyansk, which can also be destroyed and cut off. Either it bumps into the Zaporizhzhya region.
At the same time, a significant part of the western administrative border of the Zaporizhzhya region is already a logistical lockdown, while the eastern one is more or less working. Therefore, Kherson region is more vulnerable.
This scenario is quite possible, I absolutely do not rule it out. But, again, it is too early to talk about it. The appropriate conditions must be created. And the conditions are the scaling of the logistical lockdown in each sector.
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