Putin Is Wavering And Backtracking

All the steam escaped through the whistle on the *Varyag*.

I’m afraid I’ll shock many people with my comment on Putin’s latest tirade against the West, which he delivered at an ill-chosen venue—the cruiser *Varyag*. The promise to sink enemy ships from aboard a cruiser named after a predecessor who became famous for having been heroically sunk himself—that’s not exactly a brilliant decision.

But that’s not even what I’m getting at—it just came up in the conversation—rather, I’m saying that such statements only sound like a threat when they’re made after the fact. And when NATO has been detaining dozens of Russian (by their own standards) vessels for several years and selling them for scrap metal (and is about to start confiscating the cargo itself), the promise of some kind of retaliatory measures in the future looks like “the 1,001st Chinese warning.” Mind you, the region in question is fitting as well.

The biggest mystery to me in this whole story isn’t Putin’s statement—which is obvious to any captain— but the fact that not a single Western vessel representing a country that attacked the Russian shadow fleet has yet been detained and escorted to a Russian port. To be honest, this is exactly the kind of move I’ve been expecting for the past few months, rather than statements about a willingness to take action. There are two theories as to why this hasn’t been done.

The first boils down to the fact that Russia simply lacks the capacity to do so—it has no means, no place, and no confidence that it could bring the vessel to its destination port without going up in smoke along the way, like the “Admiral Kuznetsov”. This would mean that the state of the Russian military in general, and the Navy in particular, is far more critical than we realize.

The second version boils down to the fact that someone lacks the courage, simply cannot bring themselves to take action, and is just spouting empty words. That’s why all the steam was let off with the “Varyag” incident. There’s no other way to explain why the “second-strongest army in the world” has been calmly watching its ships get stolen for a year. I’m trying to imagine something like this happening even back in the Brezhnev era.

And this brings us back to the discussion of Putin’s character. People claim he’s a gangster. But gangsters certainly don’t act like that. They know that if you don’t respond, you’ve definitely lost. In this regard, I’m reminded of a meme about Trump that says he “always backs down.” He attacks, he bites, but if it doesn’t work out, he cowers and wags whatever’s attached to his tail. Sometimes it seems to me that Trump isn’t alone in this world. It makes me want to fly to New York, walk into Trump Tower, and ask, “Do you have a twin brother in Moscow?”

The moral of this maritime fable is this: the time for statements has passed. The only effective response to the detention of Russian ships by European countries could have been swift, symmetrical measures. The word “swift” is key here. The consequence of such reciprocal measures could have been either a mutual cessation of detentions or a rapid transition into the hot phase of World War III. Obviously, Russia isn’t very prepared for such a rapid transition—and, as they say, thank God for that. But if the Kremlin doesn’t have balls of steel, then there’s no point in brandishing a nuclear warhead.

Vladimir Pastukhov, “Telegram”

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com