ISW: Putin May Attack NATO Sooner Than Intelligence Predicts

That said, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to carry out a full-scale invasion.

The visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe suggests that Russia may be preparing an attack on NATO in the near future. This is according to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

They note that it is unlikely the Russian Federation will be able to carry out a full-scale invasion of a NATO country. Although U.S. intelligence considers a Russian attack on the alliance a matter of “the next few years,” the nature of Retcliffe’s trip indicates concern about a much shorter timeframe. After all, such visits are usually intended to discuss sensitive issues of paramount importance.

Analysts note that this visit differs from the one made by former CIA Director William Burns, who sought to dissuade the Kremlin from attacking Ukraine. At that time, Russia was already actively building up its troop numbers along the border with Ukraine. Currently, however, there is no evidence that Russia is undertaking anything similar in the border zone with the Baltic states.

However, according to experts, Russia could resort to airstrikes against the Baltic states or carry out a limited ground incursion with a small force. For such operations, Russia does not necessarily need to assemble a large contingent, as it did in 2021. However, it is not yet known whether Putin has already approved such an operation.

At present, analysts note, Russia is vehemently denying any possibility of an attack on NATO countries. However, these statements may be part of a Russian cognitive warfare campaign rather than an expression of the Kremlin’s actual position. Moscow, in particular, actively denied its plans to attack Ukraine in late 2021 and early 2022.

According to experts, the Kremlin may be deliberately creating ambiguity regarding its intention to launch any attack on NATO. This allows them to sow fear and paralyze the alliance’s ability to make decisions on self-defense. In addition, this affects the continued supply of weapons to Ukraine.

Analysts note that NATO has still not been able to reach an agreement on how to respond to a possible attack by Russia. And the Kremlin is likely to take advantage of this by choosing a strategy that, in its view, will minimize the Alliance’s response. If this happens, Putin will succeed in achieving one of his key strategic goals—undermining trust in NATO.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com