The Dollar Is Poised To Surge
- 3.08.2026, 8:29
- 2,920
Weekly Forecast.
The last week of July, which ended on Friday, the 31st, was one of the busiest for Belarus’s domestic foreign exchange market. Overall, trading volume in the Russian ruble in July 2026 reached its highest level since December 2024. Interest in the Russian currency is confirmed by the growth in foreign trade turnover between Belarus and Russia and the fact that the share of national currencies in mutual payments has reached nearly 100%. In his traditional review for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
The Dollar Is Heading Upward
At the end of last week, the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian domestic market reached USD/BYN 2.9085. Overall, the dollar’s exchange rate rose by +0.88% over the week; since the start of the year, the dollar has posted a slight gain of +0.11%. Trading volume for the week was 77.541 million U.S. dollars.
The Russian ruble’s exchange rate on the Belarusian foreign exchange market during the same period fell to RUB/BYN 3.663 per 100 Russian rubles. Overall for the week, the Russian currency lost -0.64%, and year-to-date, the decline stands at -1.15%. Trading volume remained high throughout July, and the final week—with 25,844.850 million rubles—was no exception. This is equivalent to approximately 327.3 million U.S. dollars.
Thus, the weighted average exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar last week was approximately USD/RUB 79.0, which fully confirms the trend in the Russian financial market toward a weakening ruble.
On the Moscow exchange, the dollar rose above 80.0 rubles over the last three days of last week. And although last week closed at USD/RUB 79.61, there is reason to believe that the dollar exchange rate will move higher starting in August.
The Russian market is shifting toward cash
Despite the Bank of Russia’s persistently high key rate and tight monetary policy, the balance of the Russian market is beginning to shift toward increased interest in foreign currency. Increased demand for the dollar from importers ahead of the fall-winter consumer season and the summer vacation season is fueling demand for “unfriendly” currencies. In addition, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia are expected to revise the volumes of currency purchase and sale operations in early August amid falling Russian oil prices and a reduction in currency supplies to the domestic market.
Since the beginning of the year, the Russian financial market has seen a trend of individuals shifting from deposits to cash ruble liquidity. In July, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the amount of cash held by individuals increased by more than 620 billion rubles. In total, individuals have transferred more than 2 trillion rubles since the start of the year.
Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), the Bank of Russia sold 43.8 metric tons of gold over the past six months, becoming the global leader in this regard. So here’s a simple question: where will all this cash go? Part of it will go into “mattress banks,” but some of it will be converted into foreign currency out of old habit.
Weekly Forecast
The second half of this week will be indicative for the global financial market. Last Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its regular meeting, following which the U.S. central bank left the interest rate unchanged. The concluding press conference and certain remarks drew particular interest, as they did not rule out a shift by the regulator toward raising the Fed’s interest rate. It is Friday’s NFP data that may—not indirectly, but directly—either add fuel to the fire or extinguish it. But that won’t happen until the end of the week.
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