"The Deployment Of The 'Oreshnik' In Belarus Is A Signal To Europeans"
- 8.09.2026, 17:08
Russia is moving toward escalation.
Russia has deployed the 101st Missile Brigade to Belarus; the brigade is equipped with the "Oreshnik" missile. This was recently stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Oleg Ivashchenko in an interview with “Ukrinform.”
Why might Russia have deployed the “Oreshnik” right now? The website Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Petro Oleshchuk:
— A threat to Europe. I view all of this primarily in the context of the campaign that the Russian Federation is currently waging against Europeans. I think all of this is synchronized with the corresponding terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage that Russia is carrying out on EU territory. For example, the arson attack on a factory in Poland. A whole series of attempts and acts of sabotage at energy facilities in Germany. All of this is part of a broader scheme. In other words, Russia is simply trying to intimidate European countries so that they will withdraw their support for Ukraine. To this end, the Kremlin is using a range of methods, both within Europe and, for example, the situation with the “Oreshnik” itself.
Obviously, there’s no point in deploying the “Oreshnik” in Belarus against Ukraine. It can easily reach Ukraine from Astrakhan.
Deploying “Oreshnik” in Belarus is a signal to Europeans that, in effect, “look, we can strike Paris or other European capitals at any moment.” I want to emphasize that this is part of a hybrid war campaign against Europe, which employs both direct terrorist and sabotage methods as well as psychological pressure and intimidation tactics.
— To what extent is Lukashenko currently able to refuse Putin’s request to deploy new Russian weapons?
— He’ll try to walk a fine line, attempting to please everyone at once. We know that he recently met with Putin; perhaps the deployment of “Oreshnik” is the compromise he is currently willing to make.
As I understand it, Lukashenko’s current tactic is as follows: he doesn’t want to go to war directly, but he also doesn’t want to come into conflict with Putin in any way. Therefore, his main tactic boils down to this: while demonstrating loyalty and showing that he is preparing for war or some kind of escalation, he avoids the escalation itself.
In other words, he probably explains it to Putin this way: “Look, I won’t be much help right now, but I’m going to create the appearance of a threat in order to stretch Ukrainian forces and force the Ukrainians to concentrate their troops on the northern border.”
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