Arkady Moshes: Policy of sanctions against Belarus was rather effective

Dr. Arkady Moshes, Senior Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, in an interview to Deutsche Welle estimated effectiveness of the EU and US sanctions against Belarusian authorities.

- How effective the policy of Western sanctions against Belarus was?

- I think one should admit that the policy of sanctions was effective to some degree, but it has played its role in the present Belarus’ re-orientation towards the West. Naturally this role was exclusively peripheral and secondary.

The basic reasons which explain the today’s turnaround are not connected to the sanctions. But the latter, though they didn’t have significant economic effect, have influenced the views of certain people in the ruling class of Belarus. Without the economic crisis and growing differences in the Russian-Belarusian relations no Western sanctions would bring about such a result we see today.

- The EU has suspended visa sanctions, and the US hasn’t given up the economic sanctions completely. What is a chance that Washington would follow the example of Brussels?

- I think it is too early to speak about that, as in the US the evaluation of the sanctions’ effectiveness differs from the European one.

Besides, the US, unlike Europe, is always choosing some forceful actions more easily. Brussels does not feel comfortable when chooses sanctions, understanding that it’s hard for the today’s EU consisting of 27 states to find understanding on this issue.

It is too early to say what will happen next in the relations of Belarus and the US, but it is clear even now why the Belarusian leadership wants to have the US sanctions lifted. They stand rather high in symbolic terms. If processes of privatization start in Belarus, a number of their participants would look whether the country is under sanctions or not.

- To your mind, why the opinion that the policy of cooperation with Belarus would be more fruitful, is prevailing in the EU now?

- Again, it is nothing more but an assumption for today. One should proceed from a discussion on sanctions and speak just about the EU policy which has been conducted towards Belarus since 1997. Until quite recently it was a policy which was limited to isolation of Belarus, which has not given an effect according to modern European estimations. That is why today trying something new – interaction with the regime — is discussed.

There are certain hopes, Europe has given Belarus advances and is waiting for approaching movement. And undoubtedly, at the same time the EU is unlikely to realize how professional would be diplomats and negotiators met by them in Minsk.

For more than 10 years Alyaksandr Lukashenka was successfully balancing between the East and the West, receiving rather serious economic preferences from Russia in exchange for statement and declarations. He can use the same tactics in the relations with the EU as well.

To my mind, this danger is taken into account by Brussels insufficiently. Today in the sphere of negotiation Minsk has many tactical bargaining chips, and one shouldn’t doubt that it will use them.