And if Putin tries to occupy Belarus, it will not work out.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka is completely dependent on Russia, chief editor of the charter97.org website Natallia Radzina says, commenting to the Gordon periodical on Lukashenka’s refusal to participate in the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union in St. Petersburg.
"Lukashenka had absolutely nothing to do at this summit. Recently the stubborn sycophant has been publicly humiliated on some occasions: Russia cut oil supplies to Belarus, the republic did not pay for Russian gas and Russia returned the advance, demanding the full amount, there were constant rows with the Rospotrebnadzor, which keeps returning re-exports of goods, a source of contributions into Lukashenka’s personal pocket, from Ukraine and Western countries to Belarus, and, further still, began to turn down Belarusian goods, stating that they were not suitable for consumption and even dangerous to life," – Radzina explains.
According to her, the information that a decision to remove Lukashenka from power has been made in Russia could be another reason for not going to the summit.
"He is aware of it, which is evident from his actions. The Russian Federal Security Service (as the successor to the Soviet KGB) has different scenarios for removing unwanted leaders from power. Especially when it comes to absolute puppets, completely dependent. And Lukashenka realizes that he has nowhere to go without Russia. The leash becomes one day shorter, another day longer, but his fate is entirely in Putin’s hands. Europe will not save Lukashenka. He is unable to meet Europe halfway, because it means losing his power," – she says.
However, she believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not dare to occupy Belarus.
"Belarusians will not fight for Lukashenka, but for their country’s independence they will. Putin will not be able to take over Belarus easily. It still is a European country, and a large percentage of citizens want to be in the European Union. The situation in the region has changed dramatically after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In any case, if Putin tries to occupy Belarus, it will not work out," – Radzina says.
It is to be recalled that on December 26, St. Petersburg hosted the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union. The union officially started its work on January 1, 2015, and became the next stage of the Eurasian integration under the aegis of Russia. Currently, the EAEC includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.
Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka refused to attend the summit, depriving the meeting of its quorum. In 2015, Lukashenka already said that Belarus had signed the agreement, but with a proviso, and might withdraw from the EAEC.