Belarus May Lose $ 8 Billion Out Of Russia's Tax Maneuver

Oil may rise in price to more than $ 20 per ton because of it.

The loss of Belarus, caused by the tax maneuver in the oil industry in Russia, could amount to about $ 8 billion. Such an assessment is given in a study by Vygon Consalting, a Russian consulting company, grodno24.com writes.

The tax maneuver implies that in 2019-2024, the export duty on oil in Russia, which Belarus does not pay when importing hydrocarbons, will decrease from 30% to 0%.

At the same time, the mineral extraction tax will increase, which will lead to an increase in the entry price of oil for Belarus.

– The losses of the EAEU countries compared to the current tax system, subject to the absence of compensation payments, will amount to 626 billion Russian rubles for 6 years of the maneuver, and in the year of its completion – 174 billion. The losses are mainly related to the increase in the price of oil supplies for Belarusian refineries, which will make up 87% of the total amount, – Vygon Consalting’s study says.

Thus, the Russian analysts came to the conclusion that for 6 years of implementing the tax maneuver, the additional costs of Belarus associated with the increase in the price of Russian oil will amount to 544.6 billion Russian rubles, which is equivalent to about $ 8 billion.

Earlier, Belnautakhim concern representatives stated that, because of the tax maneuver, from next year, oil could become more expensive for Belarus by more than $ 20 per ton.

Taking into account that in 2019, Belarusian refineries plan to import over 18 million tons of oil, the cost of hydrocarbons may increase by more than $ 360 million. The Ministry of Finance of Belarus also expects losses, but smaller ones. The Ministry of Finance of Belarus estimates the budget losses because of the decrease in revenue from export duties on oil and oil products, which will amount to $ 231.6 million in 2019.

In addition, in order to prevent the growth of prices for fuel on the domestic market, the draft budget for 2019 provides for a reduction in excise taxes on automotive fuel by 25%. The loss of the budget in this regard will amount to 170 million rubles.

Thus, next year, the lost revenues of the Belarusian budget through the effects of the tax maneuver can amount to more than 300 million dollars.

The Finance Ministry believes that the loss of the Belarusian budget could reach 4.3 billion Belarusian rubles in 2024, which is equivalent to 3.8% of Belarus’s GDP.

In the third quarter of 2018, Minsk and Moscow started negotiations on compensation for damage related to tax maneuver in Russia.