Belarusian girls will follow boys in leaving the country.
The law of equilibrium is a good one. Just in two weeks - from August 1 - Poland cancels income tax for young people under 26 years old. Shouldn't one be surprised that at this very time Belarusian Minister of Education together with the Minister of Defence argues that the young do not need Master's Degree, but pre-conscription training in schools will be intensified? It should happen according to the law of conservation of energy.
How else can one explain it? Should one explain it with the idiocy of the military and civil men, officials and "deputies"? It's not an option. Such a degree of idiocy does not simply exist to come up with these amendments to the conscription law. Nobody would survive with it and certainly wouldn't be able to carry a spoon to one's mouth. Since they are still alive and do look good, it means that it is just a matter of physical laws. After all, we cannot cancel gravity. And now inexorable physical laws, a human cannot control, will act in their way. If officials haven't understood yet, I will tell them briefly and in simple words.
Now, according to statistics, half of the students studying abroad come back to Belarus within seven years. That is, these young guys, who got education abroad, but want to live at home, are still waiting for the end of the draft age. The second half does not come back at all. I suppose that the second half also planned to return, but until the age of 27, you know, things happen abroad. A successful career, for example, or a marriage with a mortgage. And that's all. Before there were few of them, and so far the situation has not been critical for the state: let the Belarusian girls suffer that the number of young people in the country decreases, while it is always enough of them for the BRYU. Now the situation is quite bad. And according to the laws of Lukashenka's physics, it will be even worse.
Because the events will develop simply. If school leavers still planned to study in Belarus, and then apply to post-graduate or master's degree here, now they will leave on the night after graduation without waiting for the traditional sunrise. They will escape as quickly as possible, just to be sure that the borders are not already closed by the conscription. And they won't escape for ten years to return at the end of the draft age.
They will stay vigilant. These guys have well remembered that a "deputy" from the vegetable factory in Mozyr offered to raise the draft age to 40 years. This issue will be back to waiting for naive twenty-seven-year-olds. These guys probably remember how one Belarusian-speaking "deputy", having no shame, argued that it would be great to take young men to the army after the first course. By the way, for some reason, this "deputy" is called an opposition one. If a schoolboy reads it, he may decide that it's time to run like a mad if the opposition is like this here.
Further, it is more. Girls will also follow the boys' example. When there will be no young men of their age here, what can these girls do? Moreover, no matter how persuasive about the absence of war our military "heroes" are, it does not work. There is no need to stay here anyway.
Wait, but what about preschoolers, who are not yet concerned about the problem of compulsory military service? They do not need to worry: their parents still have time. These parents, able-bodied citizens of Belarus will leave with their families to protect their children not just from the army, but from the lack of choice when decisions are made for an adult person. They will do any job, sacrifice their careers. They will start looking for Polish roots - of course, Poland is interested in young people. It's coming up with all sorts of bonuses like exemption from income tax, preferential mortgages, children's allowance. It applies not only to Polish citizens but also to foreigners living there.
And the military men will wonder where conscripts are. However, the military will disappear as well. The army cannot exist without soldiers. And since new generations of Belarusians will be born in other countries, there will be no one to live here. And Belarus will turn into a vacuum - a space free from matter.
The military men, learn physics before it's too late. And the country may not turn into a space void, and fireworks will stop killing people.
Iryna Khalip, especially for Charter97.org