Vitaly Portnikov: It’s Time For Lukashenka To Pack His Suitcases

Belarusians will greet Kalinouski's regiment as liberators.

Why does Putin need the participation of Belarusians in the war against Ukraine? Does Lukashenka have room for maneuver? Why is the Belarusian dictator afraid of the Kalinouski regiment? Charter97.org discussed it with well-known Ukrainian political analyst and journalist Vitaly Portnikov.

- It is not easy to predict how Moscow will act in the coming weeks and months. Participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the war against Ukraine undoubtedly depends primarily on the will and desire of Moscow, as well as Minsk's ability to oppose the aspirations of Vladimir Putin.

We can see that Aliaksandr Lukashenka's ability to maneuver under the pressure of the Russian president is decreasing each day. On the other hand, the weakening of Putin's position, which we have witnessed during the recent post-Soviet summits, suggests that Lukashenka will try his best to delay the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the war.

There is some reason for this. We understand that the Belarusian society has a much more negative attitude towards this war than the Russian one. The Belarusian army does not look combat-ready at all. Therefore, its real clash with the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lead to numerous casualties and, as a consequence, to protests.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka faced the latest mass protests in 2020. At that time, it was more of a European civilized protest, which collided with the arbitrariness of the power structures. The protest of people who will lose their loved ones can begin with those who have nothing more to lose. Under these conditions, not every power apparatus will be able to handle it.

- Can Lukashenka still backpedal?

- We don't know that. At least Lukashenka is doing his best to make his involvement a hybrid one. He provides Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine, makes various belligerent political statements, and meets with the puppet leadership of Abkhazia. Lukashenka does everything possible to show his loyalty to Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, he does not directly participate in military actions. It is hard to say how long Lukashenka will be able to continue it. This depends not only on Lukashenka himself and his stability but largely on Putin's persistence.

- You've said the Belarusian army is far from being the most combat-ready. Why would Putin want the Belarusians to take part in this war? Is it symbolism, or does the Russian army miss people?

- I think it's a matter of quantity. As it is usually the case in all Russian wars, use masses to amid a lack of competence. This is a specific feature of Russian military commanders throughout practically the entire history of the Russian Armed Forces.

In World War II, it resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of people. When we say those people died "to defeat Hitler's Germany" we are deceiving ourselves. Those people died because of the gross incompetence of the Soviet generals, who were unable to fight wisely and simply filled the German trenches with their compatriots' bodies to achieve their goals. All those famous "victory marshals" Russia and Belarus admire of are illiterate and talentless butchers. One should always remember it. And now the current Russian generals, whom Putin commands, are the heirs of the "victory butchers". They believe this is the only way to win wars.

I will tell you why Putin needs the participation of the Belarusians in this war. He needs it for the same reason that he needs the participation of mobilized people in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions. Putin is interested in as few "killed in action" notices as possible to avoid social unrest over the attack on Ukraine. If a Russian citizen watches the war on television, that's one thing; if a "killed in action" notice is delivered that's other one. Therefore, the task of the inhabitants of the Ukrainian occupied regions was simply to be the first to attack, to identify AFU firing points at the cost of their lives. Then the so-called "true Aryans," the Russians, followed them. This is a completely Nazi concept: we want as few Russians as possible to die, so we send Ukrainians to the positions first.

The same can be applied to the participation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in this war. The Belarusians will be the first to move into positions, and the Russians will follow them. It is worth noting that Buryats, Tuvans, people of the Caucasus go to the positions firsts, and then the ethnic Russians.

I insist that Putin's regime is blatantly Nazi from the point of view of preserving ethnic Russians. This war aims to destroy as many representatives of other ethnic groups of Russia as possible. A large number of Ukrainians who lived in the occupied territories were killed. He will solve the problem of the extermination of Belarusians.

Vladimir Putin believes ethnic Russians must settle in all these territories so that the "Russian empire" he is creating will not have any more ethnic problems. Therefore, the war in Ukraine is a deliberate extermination of Ukrainians by the Russian government and the people of Russia. The Belarusians are now being prepared for destruction.

Therefore, I was surprised that my compatriots, members of the Israeli Knesset, were offended by my other compatriot, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who compared this war to the Holocaust. Jews who live in their own state do not understand others who live in Ukraine. Zelensky tried to explain, and I have repeatedly explained to them, that the approach was identical. It is an ethnic one - to use military leverage to destroy foreigners, physical and political destruction, not some kind of restrictions on rights. They just let the first ranks die, knowing that there will be as few Belarusians, Ukrainians, Tuvans, Buryats, Chechens, Dagestanis, and so on in the future as possible.

- Is there any chance that Lukashenka would be replaced by some of the more Kremlin-loyal generals. Is Moscow capable of such special operations?

- I'm not sure that Putin will replace Lukashenka now. First, Lukashenka has been in charge of Belarus for almost three decades. The regime's head change is a moment of acute turbulence. We don't know if the Belarusian power structures and the apparatus of power in general will support any other leader as much as they support Lukashenka. The authorities are selected by Lukashenka; they are intimidated by him. When a new figure appears, a fight begins, because every other official may wonder, "Why is he in this place and not me?" Lukashenka has no alternatives, at least among those who support him. Any other Belarusian official will have such alternatives.

One should also understand that Lukashenka is a symbol of Russia's ally. In the post-Soviet space, he is an example of a man who agrees with Vladimir Putin on everything. No one else behaves like that, neither the president of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, nor the president of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, nor the president of Tajikistan Emomali Rakhmon, nor the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, nor the prime minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. I have named for you the leaders of the countries that make up the CIS. And now a question arises: who then supports Vladimir Putin, who can be considered his close ally? Lukashenka is the only one left.

- Lukashenka has increasingly mentioned Kalinouski's regiment, which is fighting in Ukraine. Why do Belarusian volunteers make him fearful today?

- This is an absolutely natural fear. Lukashenka may consider that if the Russian army is defeated (which may well happen) and cannot hold its positions, it is not clear who will stop the Belarusian volunteers if they want to challenge his regime.

Lukashenka knows that the Belarusian people do not support him, that the Belarusians will greet the soldiers of Kalinouski's regiment as liberators. The Belarusians, if there is any possibility of destroying Lukashenka's regime, will drag him out of the president's office and lead him to a prison cell. He knows he will end up in prison. It will be the least punishment for all his crimes.

Lukashenka is afraid of any force, as he is incapable of reacting with a political mechanism. In 2020, when faced with a real political protest, he did not even try to imitate dialogue, as Viktor Yanukovych unsuccessfully tried to do in Kyiv. Lukashenka is ready to fight his people. Since no other mechanisms of influence on the Belarusian people are of interest to him, he understands that any other force would bring him down along with his regime, because all of his power is based on armed people attacking unarmed people. Lukashenka's regime is vulnerable to any other force. He understands that the collapse of Russia will lead to the total collapse of his regime and all those who support him.

I would offer him to pack his suitcases for imprisonment or flee to Russia, China, or somewhere else.

- Why did Ukraine break off diplomatic relations with Iran but not with Lukashenka? How important is a democratic Belarus for Ukraine?

- I believe that one can break off diplomatic relations with Belarus just as well as with Iran. When we talk about the role the Lukashenka regime plays in the war against Ukraine, I find it hard to understand why we responded to Iran's arms supplies to Russia by breaking diplomatic relations, while we didn't react in the same way to the fact that Belarusian territory was made available for an attack on our country. However, this is a question for the president and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

As to whether a democratic Belarus is important for us, yes it is. Whatever is the current situation, the actual participation of the Belarusian state in the war against our country, I am absolutely sure that the future belongs to the democratic and European Belarus that will be a member of the European Union and NATO, a reliable barrier for future attempts to spread authoritarianism from the territory of the Russian Federation. I have absolutely no doubt that such attempts will be made even if Russia is defeated and Putin's regime collapses.

However, for Belarus to become such a European power, the Belarusian people will not only have to defeat the authoritarian regime but also to work on its mistakes.

Everything that has happened since 1994, since Lukashenka was elected president of Belarus, is a path of national degradation, collapse, years of abandonment of development, years of national suicide. It is still a big question whether the Belarusian people will be able to stop this process or they are doomed to disappear and dissolve within the Russian totalitarian society.

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