Karbalevich: Minsk May Present Chinese Minister With Unpleasant Gift

The PRC will obviously not like it.

Lithuania is trying to give a signal to official Minsk by closing two border checkpoints on the border with Belarus. However, it's unknown whether Aliaksandr Lukashenka's regime is ready to make concessions. This is what political scientist Valeryj Karbalevich said in a commentary to Belsat.

The expert notes that Lithuania is closing two border points as a political response to the actions of the official Minsk, which it considers unacceptable. These are the migration crisis and "the factor of the Wagner fighters, who appeared in Belarus and with whose help Lukashenka is trying to blackmail the neighbouring countries."

"Therefore, Lithuania's actions are an attempt to show the Belarusian leadership that such actions are unacceptable," said Valeryj Karbalevich.

According to him, it's unpleasant for Minsk and hits its economic interests, so, "probably, the Belarusian side would not want such a development." This is evidenced, among other things, by the statements of Lukashenka, who last week was "saying peace-loving things and offering peace-loving gestures" and instructed Prime Minister Raman Halouchanka to negotiate with Poland.

Karbalevich noted that the closure of border points is taking place during the visit of China's defence minister to Minsk, and China is actively using Belarus to transit its cargo and goods to Europe.

"And the Belarusian side would not want to present the Chinese guest with such a gift as the closure of the border, which creates certain problems for China," said the political analyst.

However, he added, it's hard to say whether the Belarusian authorities are ready to make any concessions.

"However, Lukashenka's peaceful tone may indicate that the Belarusian authorities are most likely not willing to make any new escalation of the conflict on the border today," said Karbalevich.

Will Border Be Closed Completely?

At the same time, he did not rule out the possibility that the border of Belarus with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia could be completely closed, but this would require a fairly serious escalation of the conflict on the border - with a force component, with the use of weapons.

"If there are such actions from the Belarusian side, there could be a really extreme measure - the closure of the border," stressed the political scientist.

Yet, said Karbalevich, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga will still have to consult with Brussels before taking such a decision, as it will affect the interests of the entire European Union, as well as Russia, Kazakhstan, China and other countries that trade with Western Europe through Belarus.