American Expert: Ukrainian Forces Dealt Triple Blow To Russia, Gaining Important Victory

Ukraine's strategy led to the defeat of the Wagner PMC.

After the official confirmation of the death of Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, it is safe to say that Ukraine made a strategically correct decision to defend Bakhmut back in winter. It was this decision that subsequently led to a sequence of events that provoked three important successes for Ukraine: weakened Putin, led to the defeat of the Wagner, and caused the death of Prigozhin.

All this significantly weakened Russia in the fight with Ukraine.

According to dialog.ua, Phillips O'Brien, an American historian and professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, writes about this on Twitter.

“Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut was the right choice. The losses Wagner suffered led to Prigozhin’s growing split with the Russian military. The longer the campaign lasted the more angry he became, and this led directly to the mutiny attempt. No Bakhmut, no mutiny. The mutiny not only crippled Wagner; it weakened Putin.Wagner fought relatively well at Bakhmut, and with some real aggression. If the Ukrainians had abandoned Bakhmut, it would have preserved a large number of Wagner forces, allowed them to recruit more, all of whom would be fighting Ukrainians now. Russia would have real reserves,” the professor notes.

According to him, Had Ukraine pulled out of Bakhmut, it would not have sped up the counteroffensive, as clearly the Ukrainians needed all the time possible to train. If anything; it started on the early side in early June. That means Russia would have had more resources to both rest up and help dig in for the counteroffensive.

So, in fighting for Bakhmut, the Ukrainians broke Wagner, helped precipitate the violent breakdown between Prigozhin and Putin, has deprived Russia of a large reserve force now, and deprived Russia of more resources to have dug in. It was a hard choice, but worth it. Should also add, that in crippling Wagner and helping precipitate the mutiny, fighting for Bakhmut also ended up with Putin strengthening the positions of Shoigu and Gerasimov (who have performed poorly) and getting rid of Surovikin, who seems considerably more competent.

“Seen some comments that the Ukrainians could not have known this would happen--well of course not. They can’t know the future. They decided to do it to cause maximum casualties to the Russians. It was these casualties (intended) which caused the Wagner crisis. I see some comments that the Ukrainians should have pulled out of the town and dug in in the countryside and Wagner would have continued to attack. There is no evidence of this. The Russians wanted to take Bakhmut for politics. Otherwise they were building defensive lines,” the professor stressed.