Anatol Kotau: ‘Fire To Kill’ Will Now Be Used Against Lukashenka

No more precautionary measures.

Lithuania intends to close two of the six checkpoints on the border with Belarus “soon”, said Deputy Interior Minister Arnoldas Abramavičius.

He noted that so far this refers to the points “Šumskas” (“Losha” from the Belarusian side) and “Tverečius” (“Vidzy”).

Other Polish and Lithuanian officials do not rule out a “complete” closure of the border.

Political scientist Anatol Kotau, in a commentary to UDF, noted that it is the number of border crossings that Lithuania plans to close that matters, but their quality.

“The closure of the two border crossings of Losha and Vidzy will not affect trade. These are not the main arteries for trade. One point admits only vehicles without cargo, the other — vehicles weighing up to 3.5 tons. They close what “does not hurt” both sides,” said Anatol Kotau.

At the same time, Lithuania's plans should be seen as a signal.

“Any subsequent restriction will be sensitive. Because precautionary measures are over. There are no more blank cartridges and no more flares. Only the fire to kill remains,” Kotau said.

In his opinion, the reaction of Minsk depends on two factors — sanity and independence.

“There are obvious problems with both. In Lithuania and Poland, the impending closure of these checkpoints is regarded as a final warning. In the hope that the problems of security and foreign trade will finally distract from the loss of livestock,” said Anatol Kotau.

Other Polish and Lithuanian officials do not rule out a “complete” closure of the border. What will be the consequences of such a decision?

“The closure of freight traffic is a powerful blow to the interests of the regime. This is a tool of real pressure that will nullify foreign exchange earnings and fundamentally solve the problem of smuggling and circumvention of sanctions. This can either lead to the solution of a number of problems (the withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons and the Wagnerites, as well as the release of political prisoners) or already help to accelerate the inevitable involvement of the regime in a hot conflict,” Kotau believes.

He added:

“If the regime has at least some remnants of the instinct of self-preservation or independence, it will choose the first option. Otherwise, the crisis will resolve in a different way. Any provocation on the border (migrants, Wagnerites, army) — and the second scenario will be launched.