The Telegraph: Russia Is Choking On Oil Crisis
- 10.10.2025, 11:27
- 4,108
Ukrainian drones reach the heart of the Russian Federation.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin finds himself in the most difficult position of his years in power - the economic war is draining Russia faster than the army is gaining an advantage at the front. The summer offensive, which the Kremlin considered a watershed, has failed, with Russia losing about 800 soldiers every day without advancing a single step, writes The Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the world economics editor of The Telegraph.
"The Russians continue to attack with drones, but they do not reach a single strategic target," said former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk.
Ukrainian drones reach Russia's heartland
A series of precision Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries has effectively paralyzed much of Russia's energy sector. According to the Naftogaz agency, 38% of the country's main refining facilities are out of operation.
The deepest strike came this week when a Ukrainian drone struck the Antipinsky refinery in Western Siberia, two thousand kilometers from the front line.
"Russia cannot protect these assets. This shocks many people because they did not believe Ukraine was capable of such deep strikes," Zagorodnyuk emphasized.
Because of the destroyed refineries, Russia is forced to import fuel from China, Korea and Belarus. At the same time, 20 regions of the country have introduced fuel rationing, and gas stations are limiting the sale of gasoline to 30 liters.
The oil industry, once the main source of budget revenues, is in crisis: production has fallen to 9 million barrels per day, and export revenues have fallen to a three-year low of 546 million euros per day.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that falling oil prices could collapse production even further, to 7.5 million barrels a day. For the Kremlin, that means reduced foreign exchange earnings and a fiscal collapse.
With Russia's budget deficit growing, it is resorting to desperate steps. The Kremlin is even considering introducing a "parasitism tax" - for those who don't work. Meanwhile, banks are being forced to lend to the defense industry, which is only accelerating the financial crisis.
West fears new round of war
Despite failures on the front, Russia's military economy is still running at full steam, and analysts fear Putin may resort to a new escalation to avoid defeat.
"He always raises the stakes when things go wrong. The probability of expanding the war in Europe now is extremely high," Zagorodniuk warned.
The potential targets include Moldova, the Suvalki corridor or even Estonia's Narva, where the majority of the population is ethnic Russian.
A possible unwritten pact between Moscow and Beijing poses an additional danger. According to sources in security circles, Si Jinping is backing Russia to prevent the US from focusing entirely on China.
"Beijing needs Russia to stay in the war," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said openly during a meeting with EU officials in July.
Zagorodnyuk compares the current situation to the Crimean War of the 19th century, when Russia lost not because of military defeat but because of economic exhaustion. Then Tsar Nicholas I also overestimated his strength, and in the end had to accept humiliating terms of surrender.
Zahorodniuk assures:
"The clock is ticking for Putin. And it is this countdown that makes the current moment for Europe the most dangerous in decades."
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