Putin Faces Two Threats

He reminds me of Panikovsky at the moment he realized that the weights weren't made of gold at all.

Putin fears that if he were to end the war without achieving the goals he once declared, Russians would see this as proof that the war was unnecessary in the first place. The reasoning goes: if we can get by without Pokrovsk in 2026, why couldn’t we have done so in 2022? But as long as hostilities continue, the Russian president believes this cannot be proven.

A certain normalization of life—which is bound to occur after the war—looks particularly dangerous. After that, it will become completely unclear why the war was necessary in the first place. People will say, “Well, look: live and be happy—why did he even need this Donbas in the first place?”

Another—even more fundamental—problem stems from the fact that so many objectives were initially declared that even achieving just one of them would not compensate for the failure to achieve the others. Let’s suppose that Putin captured the entire Donbas and ended the war. But what about the problem of a “non-denazified” and “non-demilitarized” Kyiv? Oh, so it turns out that’s not a big deal? But why was it a big deal in 2022?

Or let’s suppose that the war ends now on the condition that Ukraine does not join NATO. This in no way changes the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now armed to the teeth, incredibly hostile toward Russia, and—most importantly—no weaker than their Russian counterparts. After all, Moscow never managed to crush them. “So what’s the success here? How will the Donbas help us in this situation?” the average Russian might ask. Putin will have nothing to say in response.

Right now, the question “Why has the demilitarization of Ukraine failed?” can be answered: “Because we’re not done yet.” Once the war ends, that answer will no longer hold water.

That is precisely why continuing the war has intrinsic political value for Putin. It allows him not so much to bring victory closer as to postpone the moment of reckoning.

This is very important, so let me emphasize it in bold: the fact that Putin continues to fight does not at all mean that he expects to win; he simply believes that, as long as the war continues, its setbacks can be portrayed as temporary. As soon as the fighting ends, those setbacks will become final.

I’d compare Putin to Panikovsky at the moment when he realized that the weights he was sawing with Balaganov weren’t made of gold. Trying to delay the moment of reckoning—which, as is becoming increasingly obvious to him, is inevitable—he urges: “Keep sawing, Shura, keep sawing.”

***

The issue of the victims of this war has a unique dynamic. As long as hostilities continue, the loss of life can be explained by the need to achieve victory. The argument goes that those who died did not give their lives in vain, because the stated goal will inevitably be achieved. But if the war ends without a clear victory, the question will inevitably arise: what did they die for?

What will prove particularly dangerous for Putin is that this question will be asked not only by opponents of the war, but also by people who supported it—those who sent their loved ones to the front and sincerely believed the propaganda.

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None of the above means that the war will go on forever. The negative consequences associated with the depletion of the regime’s resource base are mounting, and at some point will ultimately outweigh everything else—including considerations of prestige and the reluctance to answer the questions mentioned above.

Overall, it can be said that Putin faces two threats.

The first is the continuation of the war, which is gradually eroding the regime’s economic, financial, human, and political resources.

The second is ending the war, which could trigger a process of reassessing everything that has happened.

The first threat already exists today; the second is still only a potential one.

Acting in the spirit of Hamlet, as described in his famous soliloquy, Putin prefers today’s problems to tomorrow’s risks. Fear of the future paralyzes him, robbing him of the ability to take a radical step. Let things take their course, he seems to think.

However, as resources are depleted, today’s losses will become increasingly dangerous. At some point, they may prove more terrifying than any future reckoning.

Abbas Galliamov, “Telegram” .

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