A Riot, A Fuel Shortage, And A Fire At A Factory: Three Scenarios For Kaliningrad Have Been Identified
- 28.10.2026, 16:37
- 1,280
Experts have modeled a potential crisis in the Russian exclave.
A three-day exercise was held in Vilnius, during which about two dozen security experts simulated a potential crisis in the Kaliningrad region—ranging from fuel shortages and a military mutiny to a man-made disaster. In all three scenarios, Lithuania and Poland were given the opportunity to influence the course of events, while the Russian leadership prioritized political control over problem-solving, writes Baltic Institute for Strategic Studies (BISC).
Participants played the roles of representatives of the authorities of Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Russia, and other parties.
In the first scenario, fuel supply disruptions triggered protests in the Kaliningrad region, attempts by citizens to cross the borders of neighboring countries, and a mutiny by military personnel who refused to be deployed to fight against Ukraine.
In the second scenario, armed insurgents seized key facilities and the governor but were unable to break through into Belarus. Poland and Lithuania strengthened border security and placed their forces on high alert.
The third scenario involved a fire at a battery manufacturing plant near the Lithuanian border. Toxic smoke spread throughout the region, and Russian authorities were forced to seek assistance from their NATO neighbors, despite accusations of sabotage.
“Russia still posed a threat, but its capabilities were not limitless, and its own resources were insufficient to resolve the crisis,” said BISC Director Edward Lucas.
Pijus Krūminas, head of the ISM war games laboratory , explained that the purpose of the exercises was not to predict events, but to test decisions under conditions of information scarcity.
The organizers emphasize that the scenarios are based on open data and expert assumptions. They do not constitute a forecast of the likelihood of a crisis or of actual government actions.
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