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Russia Is Selling Gold To China At A Record Pace

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Russia Is Selling Gold To China At A Record Pace

Moscow is trying to close its growing budget deficit.

Russia continues to increase its gold exports to China, which has become the main export market for gold from Russia since the start of the war and the imposition of Western sanctions.

From January through September, 165 metric tons of gold bars of Russian origin were shipped to Hong Kong, according to The Moscow Times citing customs statistics from Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting.

Compared to the same period last year, gold flows from Russia to the Chinese market have more than tripled, and compared to the pre-war period, they have surged more than 55-fold. By way of comparison: throughout all of 2021, Hong Kong imported a total of just 3.3 metric tons of Russian gold. Now, however, one in every seven gold bars (15%) entering China via Hong Kong is of Russian origin.

“Hong Kong is a free port with no duties or VAT on gold and direct access to the Chinese market, which has not imposed sanctions on Russian gold,” write analysts at the CEP GPB. They note that the route to the West for Russian precious metals was closed in 2022, when the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) removed Russian refineries from its list of suppliers, and the G7 countries banned imports. Dubai became the primary trading hub for Russian gold, but the UAE, under pressure from the U.S. and the U.K., tightened controls on the gold trade.

One out of every three Russian gold bars sold to China may have come from the Central Bank’s reserves. To finance the budget deficit, it sold about 60 metric tons of the precious metal from its reserves this year, including 18.7 metric tons in the third quarter and 21.8 metric tons in the second. The sell-off was the largest for Russia since 1998, when the GKO government bond pyramid scheme collapsed and the Russian government defaulted on its sovereign debt.

The People’s Bank of China, by contrast, has been buying gold for its reserves for 23 consecutive months, according to Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Policy (CEP). According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the People’s Bank of China purchased 63.14 metric tons in the third quarter. Total gold imports into China this year jumped 72% year-over-year, notes Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Policy (CEP).

Before the war, Russia exported about 300 metric tons of gold annually, or more than 80% of its precious metal production, which reached 360 metric tons per year (including about 300 metric tons from domestic mining). Exactly how much gold is currently being mined in Russia and exported abroad is not known for certain: the authorities classified customs statistics shortly after the invasion of Ukraine. The World Gold Council estimates Russia’s production for 2024 at approximately 330 metric tons.

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