"Lukashenko Can't Do Anything About It."

The crisis will hit the Belarusian machine-building industry especially hard.

In January-March this year, Belarus earned $11 billion on exports of goods, which is 20% more than last year.

At the same time, the volume of imports increased by 14%, and the balance of foreign trade remains negative.

At the same time, new trends are forming in the domestic market: not only the population, but also companies are actively selling foreign currency. In April, they together sold $568 million more foreign currency than they bought.

The increased supply led to the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar.

Whether this trend will take hold and what factors will further influence Belarusian exports and the Belarusian ruble, "Filin" learned from the master of economics, specialist in public administration and international development Alisa Ryzhichenko.

- Indeed, exports have increased, but we need to understand why: global prices for potash fertilizers have risen, plus due to the global energy crisis, prices for oil and petroleum products have risen - explains Alisa Ryzhichenko. - That is, the commodity volume of exports has not increased, but the amount in value terms has increased.

At the same time, I note that imports have also increased, and the balance of foreign trade is still negative. Therefore, there is little reason to rejoice.

The series of external factors has developed favorably and Lukashenko has actually caught this moment, as he can buy Russian oil more cheaply and sell oil products at more expensive world prices.

At the same time, in March, the gold reserves decreased by more than a billion. This means that there are more expenses and we have to use ZVR to repay external liabilities and use them to support the exchange rate.

In turn, a negative balance, which persists for a long time, as we have, in the long term can affect the change of the exchange rate inside the country. It turns out that we spend more currency than we attract.

Of course, we cannot ignore the fact that our currency is primarily Russian, not dollars and euros, as Russia is our main trading partner. And the Belarusian ruble has depreciated against the Russian ruble by 11%

- Why is it strengthening against the dollar?

- There are several reasons. The first one is that our domestic demand for dollars is lower than the supply. Today there is such a "forced liquidation" of currency reserves, both on the part of individuals and legal entities.

- What or who is forcing them?

- Businesses at the moment need money to pay VAT, as it is time for tax payments. In addition, they need to pay salaries, they need working capital. Therefore, they withdraw their foreign currency reserves in Belarusian rubles to make all payments on time.

Business is also affected by the strong growth of prices for imported goods. They are growing because of the increase in logistics costs, which affects insurance payments.

And I would note this as a trend, which will not go anywhere, even if, say, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz can be resolved and ships will start sailing freely again.

Insurance companies will now still include these risks in the cost of insurance. That is, insurance premiums and the cost of transportation will remain increased.

The cost of goods will increase, and the increased costs will continue to be transferred to the buyer. That is, the prices of imported goods in Belarus will continue to rise.

- How will it affect the dollar exchange rate?

- The dollar exchange rate depends on whether the U.S. will raise the key rate again, as they have done in recent years to curb inflation. If they do, the dollar will strengthen again as a world currency. And in Belarus, too.

The Russian factor will also have a strong influence. The low dollar rate is unfavorable for their budget now. Most likely, they will take measures to raise it. According to their experts' forecasts, by summer the dollar exchange rate will be equal to 95-100 rubles. And it will also be reflected in the exchange rate inside our country.

Many things depend on the behavior of Belarusians themselves. Now we observe that business is giving up foreign currency. But the opposite situation may occur, when business will start buying more foreign currency, as the prices of imported goods will rise.

In this case, the dollar rate will also strengthen. But also individuals - will they continue to actively sell currency or will they see some minimal growth movements and, as it happens, run to exchange offices to buy dollars?

I should emphasize that inflation inside the country, while prices continue to rise, also leads to depreciation of the national currency.

- Many countries are experiencing the crisis to different degrees. Is the situation of our country more vulnerable and in what way?

- What we observe in the economy of Belarus is not sustainable and structural changes, but the influence of external factors. And Lukashenko himself cannot do anything about these factors.

Yes, he has temporarily taken advantage of the situation. But at the same time, Belarus is really quite vulnerable, because it is completely dependent on what is happening in Russia.

And there is a strong economic crisis, actually a recession. Huge expenditures on the war have led to the fact that already in the first quarter the budget deficit has exceeded the annual plan.

Infrastructure facilities have stopped, in some regions government employees have been delaying their salaries since the beginning of the year. Both Putin and the government recognize the serious decline.

Russian Federation accounts for 60-70% of Belarus' exports; another 15% goes to third countries, but through the Russian territory, which means that it also depends on Russia.

In the background of their crisis, the export of our civilian goods will be greatly reduced. This will especially hit the machine-building industry. In fact, the trend has been going on since last year, even then the sales of our dump trucks BelAZ fell down.

It is clear that this situation will hit the entire economy of the country, as there are practically no other markets. Such conclusions can also be drawn from the fact that for the first time our stocks have reached more than 100% of the monthly production volume.

That is why the very 20% of the increased exports, I emphasize, in value terms, is only a short-term effect of external factors.

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