Media: "Oreshnik" Has An Irreparable Flaw That Causes It To Deviate From Its Target By Tens Of Kilometers

What is known.

Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile has an irreparable defect in its guidance system and deviates from its target coordinates by tens of kilometers. This was reported by the analytical firm Dallas Analytics, citing internal correspondence from Russian defense contractors, according to The Insider.

As analysts discovered, the defect is caused by the GU-503 gyroscopic unit—a Soviet aviation instrument that was adapted for the “Oreshnik.” The instrument serves as the missile’s internal stabilization mechanism and allows for control of its position in flight; even a deviation of half a degree at hypersonic speeds leads to a deviation from the target by tens of kilometers. According to a letter dated March 18, 2025, AO MZP (Michurinsky Progress Plant) informed the customer that serial production of the GU-503 had been discontinued, the technological equipment for its calibration and testing was developed in the early 1970s, it is “technologically obsolete,” many components have failed, and there is nothing to replace them with.

According to analysts, even if components were available, the factories would be unable to verify the gyroscope’s accuracy before final assembly. As Dallas Analytics notes, due to Russian dictator Putin’s demand for a rushed deployment of the “Oreshnik,” the developers completely abandoned quality control. An examination of the “Oreshnik” wreckage that fell in Ukraine revealed 2025 markings on the GU-503 units—analysts suggest that the modern replacement for the gyroscope, which Progress had proposed to develop, was never actually created.

Dallas Analytics writes that these issues may explain the “Oreshnik” crash into garages in Bila Tserkva in May 2026, after which Putin was forced to justify the incident by claiming that the Russians had done it on purpose “for the sake of observing accuracy.” In doing so, the dictator effectively admitted that the missile is still in the testing phase, even though he had previously spoken of the start of its mass production.

“This is an industrial hybrid assembled from fragmented components belonging to completely different missile development programs, most of which have existed for several decades… It is a product of an isolated regime that masks its structural weaknesses with aggressive threats of escalation. Russia remains an unstable adversary whose uncontrolled arsenal and political will pose a global threat,” writes Dallas Analytics regarding the “Oreshnik.”

On June 12, the Ukrainian Air Force warned of a high probability that the forces of the aggressor country, Russia, would use the “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).

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