Vitaly Portnikov: Lukashenko Realizes That Putin Won't Save Him

The Belarusian economy could collapse in just a few days.

Renowned Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov posted on his YouTube channel, recalled the ultimatum that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued to the Belarusian dictator.

According to him, just a few months ago, Lukashenko might have ignored such threats. But now the situation in the war has truly changed.

“Ukraine is striking targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, while Moscow is demonstrating its inability to protect its key strategic facilities from attacks by Ukrainian drones,” Portnikov noted. — Occupied Crimea is effectively isolated from the Russian Federation. A full-blown logistical and humanitarian catastrophe is rapidly unfolding on the peninsula.

Could a strike be launched against Belarusian territory? Lukashenko is right to point out that Russia is unlikely to be able to protect the country from possible Ukrainian strikes. The Belarusian economy could collapse in just a few days. And that means the Mozyr Oil Refinery—which is crucial for Lukashenko and also critically important for the Russian military—would go under as well. So, from a logical standpoint, it would be more advantageous for Zelenskyy if Lukashenko ignored the statements of his Ukrainian counterpart and left the relay stations on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. In that case, the Ukrainian army would have every reason to strike at strategic facilities of the Belarusian economy that are used to support the Russian armed forces.

An oil refinery is one such facility. In fact, it is virtually the only oil refinery at Putin’s disposal that is not subject to systematic attacks by Ukrainian drones.”

According to Portnikov, escalating the war into Belarusian territory could be politically advantageous for the Russian dictator.
“After all, Putin may believe that in this case he would have carte blanche to strike at Ukraine’s allies. That is, if Ukraine strikes the territory of a Russian ally, Russia could strike the territory of a Ukrainian ally and thus expand the war to the territories of European Union and NATO countries neighboring both the Russian Federation and Ukraine. First and foremost, Poland and the Baltic states. This is important for striking military facilities that these countries use to support the Ukrainian army.

Thus, Putin and Lukashenko will now be dealing with a situation that is fairly straightforward for them. What is more important—preserving the Republic of Belarus’s economic resources for the needs of the Russian armed forces, or exploiting the situation with the strike on relay stations on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to ultimately escalate the war into the territory of NATO member states? Moscow may believe that without such an escalation—without instilling fear in Europe, without convincing European societies that aid to Ukraine can only lead to a major war on the European continent— it will be impossible to defeat Ukraine and incorporate the territory of the neighboring state into the Russian Federation, as Putin has long dreamed of doing.

Thus, on the one hand, Zelenskyy is pressuring Lukashenko to remove the relay stations being used to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory. On the other hand, a frightened Lukashenko is trying to maintain at least the illusion of peace for his own country and preserve his own economy, realizing that his regime may simply not survive the ordeal of economic collapse, and that even Putin will no longer be able to help him. But there is also a Putin-driven motive that may be linked to an entirely different logic, one that neither Volodymyr Zelenskyy nor Alexander Lukashenko may be taking into account. This is the logic of a Great War with the West, which Putin and his allies may dream of not even from the perspective of conquering Europe, but from the perspective of paralyzing Europe’s military and economic capabilities to further support Ukraine. Putin may be hoping that his supporters in Europe will simply demonstrate that continued support for Ukraine is a serious problem for Europeans themselves. And it is precisely along this trajectory that events will unfold in the coming weeks and months.”

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