"There May Be A Special Operation": What To Expect After Lukashenko's Ultimatum Expires

Ukraine has already removed its relay stations located in Belarus.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his ultimatum to Lukashenko and stated that the Belarusian dictator must remove the relay stations for Russian drones, or the Ukrainians will do it themselves.

Why is Kyiv taking such a hard line with the Belarusian dictator right now, four years into the war?

The website Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Petro Oleshchuk:

— Ukraine’s position has significantly strengthened. For a long time, the main strategy in Ukraine’s relations with Lukashenko was to maintain neutrality and refrain from any mutual actions. But now Ukraine feels it is in a much stronger position.

Targeted strikes on Russian oil refineries, the fuel crisis in Russia, and the effective use of medium-range drones. It is worth noting that what are considered medium-range drones on a Russian scale are actually quite long-range drones on a Belarusian scale.

This gives Ukraine strong leverage, to which, by and large, Lukashenko has no response. He may be counting on help from Putin, but Putin himself, let’s just say, is not in the best of situations.

Speaking of the overall situation, there were some interesting statements today from Lavrov claiming that they were misled by U.S. representatives at the UN, who insisted that Russia must immediately agree to a ceasefire or else things will get worse. All of this creates an atmosphere in which Ukraine can use these arguments to put pressure on the Lukashenko regime—for which, on the one hand, there are the necessary resources, but, on the other hand, there is a concrete need. Ukraine is not provoking this confrontation out of the blue; there is a problem, and it is indeed a very sensitive issue being orchestrated by Belarus.

— How might events unfold after Zelenskyy’s ultimatum expires?

— Ukraine has previously stated that it has already taken such systems out of commission. It wasn’t specified how, but it’s possible that something similar will be undertaken now.

There may be other actions. It’s quite difficult to predict this. I don’t expect any specific military escalation, such as troop deployments or anything like that. Perhaps there will be some special operations, or perhaps something else. It’s hard to predict at this point. Nevertheless, Ukraine will continue to defend its position.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com