Putin's Successor: Why Shoigu Is Being Leaked Through The Media

And whether there is a chance for a change of power in the RF.

Rumors about the search for Vladimir Putin's successor and possible conspiracies within the Kremlin, which are increasingly leaking into the media space, have nothing to do with real preparations for a change of power in Russia. In fact, the public discussion of such candidates today is a powerful tool of intra-elite struggle and a signal for the physical or political elimination of competitors. In an interview with "Glavred", political scientist and expert on Central and Eastern Europe Ivan Preobrazhensky told about this.

The political scientist urges not to take these throw-ins seriously.

The intensity of talk about a potential successor is much lower now than, for example, in 2020-2021.

"Now, if someone is named Putin's successor, it will mean that this is an organized provocation against him by his opponents to destroy him. There can be no other reason," Preobrazhensky emphasized.

The political analyst cited past hardware wars as an example. Thus, the information campaign around the figure of Dmitry Kozak was once launched solely for the sake of his removal from the presidential administration because of a conflict with Sergei Kiriyenko.

Analogous logic, according to Preobrazhensky, is at work now around former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is rumored to be the leader of an anti-Putin conspiracy.

"This is also a story that Shoigu is on the verge of a criminal case against him. And someone is trying to get rid of him as soon as possible, to stimulate Putin through the media to finish off Shoigu. So I wouldn't take these rumors seriously at all, and in no way would I consider them real preparations for Putin's ouster. If we are talking about Putin's ouster, it won't look like that at all," the political scientist explained.

What the real dismantling of Putin's regime will look like

If a process of power transit or elite revolt really begins in Russia, it will have nothing to do with conspiracy rumors in Telegram channels. The real split of the elites and the emergence of an alternative to the dictator will be visible by other signs.

In particular, a figure will suddenly appear in the infopole, whose popularity will begin to grow at an inexplicable rate for no apparent reason. She will become the so-called "assembly point" for the discontented.

"Then a large number of participants in the conventional political process - because there is no open politics in Russia - will see some alternative or several alternatives to Putin," the expert said.

Another sign will be the reaction of propaganda. There will be fierce criticism of this person from the official Kremlin machine and the beginning of real problems for the new leader.

"And then it will be clear that there is an internal, deep public process, or at least an elite process for the emergence of alternatives. But these will not be rumors that someone will lead something. Most likely, it will be very random people who at first glance do not look like potential successors to Putin at all," Preobrazhensky summarized.

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