Why Belarus Has Started Saying There Are No Gasoline Problems

If there aren't any problems, then why make a big deal about it on every TV channel?

The fuel crisis in Russia has become so acute that it cannot be ignored at the highest levels of government. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a meeting with Putin that the government is taking all necessary measures. But he acknowledged that these measures are not helping. Against this backdrop, Belarusian state propaganda suddenly began claiming that there are no gasoline problems in Belarus—even though no one had asked them about it.

Find out why the situation with Belarusian gasoline is becoming alarming in the new episode of the “Optimum” program on the YouTube channel “Belarusians and the Market”.

There’s a little problem

“As a result of ongoing terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure, including facilities in the fuel and energy sector, a number of oil refineries have been damaged. Consequently, there has been a temporary, partial reduction in gasoline and diesel production,” Alexander Novak said on Wednesday.

By the end of June, Russian oil refining had temporarily fallen to a 20-year low. In June, output fell by a quarter.
And things didn’t improve in July. On Monday, July 6, the Omsk Oil Refinery was hit by Ukrainian drones. And that, just to note, is the largest oil refinery in Russia.

They promise to partially restore production in the coming days. This is because the primary oil refining units were damaged, and those can generally be repaired fairly quickly. But while they’re being repaired, a lot of damage has already been done. For example, on that same Monday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery, which is among the five largest in Russia and supplies gasoline to Moscow and the Moscow Region. On Wednesday, July 8—two days after the attack on Omsk—Ukrainian drones struck the Saratov Oil Refinery and a plant in Nizhnekamsk.

To cope with the shortage, Russia tapped into its reserves—which are actually quite limited—authorized the production of Euro 3 and Euro 2 gasoline, which is simply dangerous for modern vehicles, banned exports, ran the remaining refineries at maximum capacity, and suspended scheduled maintenance. After all, why bother with scheduled maintenance if unscheduled repairs are required anyway? In other words, they adopted a comprehensive set of measures.

“Despite the measures taken, which have partially stabilized the situation, the overall situation remains challenging for now,” Novak acknowledged.

Business is booming

So, thanks to the Russian crisis, business has really taken off for Belarusian refineries. In June, Belarus exported 140,000 metric tons of gasoline to Russia. Given summer demand, this is close to the capacity limit of Belarusian refineries.

But Russia still has a massive harvest season ahead. Even now, to cope with the crisis, Russia needs to import up to half a million metric tons of gasoline per month. So demand for Belarusian gasoline will grow. Accordingly, Belarusian refineries will have increasing opportunities to profit from this. And we can only hope that the Belarusian authorities have enough common sense and strategic planning skills to ensure that gasoline doesn’t end up like potatoes—that they don’t sell all their gasoline to Russia and then have to ask for more later.

Because as the gasoline situation in Russia worsens, the risk increases that Russian tanker trucks will start raiding Belarusian border gas stations. Although so far, there don’t seem to be any signs of a gasoline shortage in Belarus. But it’s a bit alarming that on Wednesday, several state-run media outlets suddenly decided to report that there are no gasoline problems in Belarus—that the country has an abundance of gasoline and doesn’t know what to do with it.
““Early this morning, we left Minsk for the Gomel region to assess the situation at Belarusian gas stations for ourselves. But we didn’t see anything suspicious that would disrupt the usual routine of Belarusian drivers and visitors to the country,” said a BT correspondent.

The next day, Thursday, the heavy artillery was brought in. The state-owned concern “Belneftekhim” issued an official statement declaring that there are no gasoline shortages in the country.

“As of today, just as in previous periods, the situation regarding the supply of the domestic market is stable. We are fully supplied with the necessary quantities of petroleum products. The situation at gas stations is calm; we can see that. There is no panic buying or long lines that would be unusual for this time of year or day of the week,” said Vladimir Sizov , deputy head of Belneftekhim .

And I want to say that I haven’t really been worried about gasoline until now. Because no one has complained about gasoline problems in Belarus yet. But now I’ve actually started to feel anxious about gasoline. Because that’s exactly how it started with potatoes last year. It began with them telling us that there were no problems with potatoes in the country—there weren’t any, and there wouldn’t be any.
Because if there are no problems, then why talk about it on every TV channel? And if you say there are no problems, then those problems will inevitably arise. Especially since, if you really think about it, the only things standing between us and a fuel crisis are common sense and the Belarusian authorities’ ability to engage in strategic planning. And that, to be honest, isn’t a very reliable barrier. As we’ve seen time and again over the years.

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