ISW: This Has Never Happened Before In Russia
5- 12.07.2026, 8:53
- 8,246
There is a fuel shortage in 78 of Russia's 83 regions.
In Russia, the rise in gasoline prices accelerated significantly in June. According to assessment by analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), one of the reasons was a series of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and fuel infrastructure facilities.
As noted by the ISW, citing data from the Russian news agency Interfax and Rosstat, in June the average price of gasoline rose by 6.88%. By comparison, prices rose by 0.85% in May, 0.61% in April, 1.08% in March, 0.61% in February, and 1.35% in January.
According to statistics, in June, the price of AI-92 gasoline rose by 7.3%, AI-95 by 6.7%, AI-98 by 3.1%, and diesel fuel by 7.1%.
On an annual basis, from June 2025 to June 2026, gasoline prices rose by nearly 20%. By comparison, the increase for the entire year of 2024 was 11.13%, and for 2025, it was 10.78%.
ISW believes that the sharp rise in fuel prices is linked to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, as well as on storage and logistics facilities that ensure fuel supplies, including to the occupied territories of Ukraine. According to analysts, the situation has been exacerbated by the traditional seasonal increase in demand.
The institute estimates that gasoline shortages are already being felt in at least 78 of Russia’s 83 regions, as well as in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
ISW experts believe that continued strikes on fuel infrastructure facilities could further complicate the situation. In their view, Russia’s current air defense system is not yet capable of completely preventing such attacks, which could lead to further increases in fuel prices and create additional challenges in supplying Russian troops both in the rear and in the combat zone.
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