"Lukashenko Didn't Just Drop By For No Reason"
3- 15.07.2026, 7:38
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How China Is Pushing Belarusian Goods Out of Russia.
BELPOL obtained a copy of Resolution No. 10/1 of the Collegium of the Ministry of Industry. This document was intended for internal use only. In the third paragraph of the resolution, the performance of nearly two dozen holding companies was deemed unsatisfactory based on the results for 2025. The “blacklist” includes industry leaders such as “BELAVTOMAZ,” “BELAZ-HOLDING,” “MTZ-HOLDING,” “Gomselmash,” and “Amkodor.”
The document highlights not only paper reports but also actual failures. For example, reliability issues with the T811 trams and 32100D trolleybuses have already spread beyond the country’s borders—complaints are coming in from Krasnodar.
Even more alarming, as noted, is the situation at MTZ. Attempts to “replace imports” of Western technologies with Chinese components have led to widespread wear and tear on Weichai WP10 engines.
“Solidarnast” asked Vladimir Kovalkin, head of the “Koshch Urada” project , to comment on this document. They also asked him to explain what is currently happening in the industrial sector.
— This information is primarily a leaked report that confirms the general trend evident in the macroeconomic data. The Belarusian manufacturing sector did indeed begin to struggle as early as 2025, and this trend continues,” Kovalkin notes in a brief comment.
It’s important to distinguish between two components of the industry here. One part serves the military-industrial complex, and the other serves the civilian sector. Many enterprises serve both sectors.
Those serving the military-industrial complex are still faring more or less well because there is demand from Russia. The civilian sector, however, is struggling. There’s a complex set of reasons for this. One of the main ones is China. Belarus is under sanctions and cannot purchase components for its own industry from around the world. For example, for MAZ buses—and as a result, they catch fire. And they catch fire because Western components were replaced with Chinese ones.
Chinese components aren’t necessarily bad right off the bat, but they lag behind European or American ones. The biggest problem is that when a product—such as a bus—is designed, it’s calculated to withstand specific loads.
When you’re unable to purchase a component that was specified in the technical calculations for a bus, trolleybus, truck, dump truck, or other vehicle, and you replace it with a Chinese equivalent, it often turns out to be either of inferior quality or simply not designed to handle those loads, which is why everything breaks down. This is what the quality of the notorious Belarusian products is like—what we’ve seen in the form of burning Belarusian buses all over Russia.
The second important point, my interlocutor continues, is that Belarusian industry has to compete with China on the Russian market.
“Chinese equipment was originally designed to use its own components and is more reliable than Belarusian equipment.” Moreover, it is very difficult to compete with China on price, since it is a huge country with significant imports and exports—they can dictate the terms for purchasing raw materials, components, etc., while Belarus cannot. Consequently, the price of Chinese industrial products in Russia will be lower.
This is precisely why products from the Belarusian manufacturing sector have become uncompetitive on the Russian market. Hence the result—the Belarusian manufacturing sector is getting worse and worse.
— This resolution calls for holding deputy directors and shop floor managers disciplinarily accountable for any failure to meet targets, establishing personal responsibility for each item of the “Comprehensive Plan,” and to more actively apply the decree that allows for the dismissal of personnel through a simplified procedure.
Do you think such measures can fix the situation in industry?
— The reaction of the administrative-command system won’t work for a number of reasons. First, the demographic crisis—once you lay off one person, it will be difficult to find a replacement. The labor shortage is very serious—it’s no coincidence that Lukashenko is traveling around the world, offering jobs here to Pakistanis one day and Uzbeks the next. If they start laying everyone off or imposing penalties, people will either leave the country or find new jobs.
Second, as I’ve already said, the reason all this is happening is that components and raw materials aren’t a strong point for Belarusian industry—nor is technology. We can’t compete on raw materials, price, or technology—the West is better, and China has already overtaken Belarus.
What’s left? Compete on wages and pay less than, say, the Chinese do. Then we could produce cheap, low-quality goods that would fill their own niche. But that’s also unfeasible, because Belarus is right next to the EU. In fact, even Russia can be viewed as a labor market.
In other words, if we were to impose disciplinary penalties and cut workers’ wages to make our products price-competitive with China’s, they’d simply flee the factories. Therefore, the goal set within the framework of the current economic policy is unachievable.
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